An Investor Who Sees The Future

Everyone except Taekgyu, who already knew, was surprised.

Ellie blinked her eyes and asked,

“A bet? Which side?”

“I told you. I’m betting on Brexit.”

“Oh, so… Ah!”

Hyunjoo’s expression was one of astonishment.

“You’re betting on the UK leaving the EU?”

“Yes.”

Sunyeop senior exclaimed,

“Wait, hold on! What does that mean? Isn’t the atmosphere almost confirmed for remaining?”

“Confirmed? But they haven’t even voted yet.”

Naturally, everyone had been expecting the UK to remain. In such a situation, I needed evidence to support my argument for leaving, not just to convince others, but first and foremost, to convince myself.

“The UK will leave the EU.”

Ellie seemed puzzled.

“But experts have a different opinion.”

“There’s hardly anyone less reliable than financial experts.”

If everything they said came true, the whole nation would be sitting pretty.

“Opinion polls are showing support for remaining.”

“The EU exit supporters are conservatives. Conservatives are reluctant to reveal themselves as such. Haven’t you heard of the Shy Tory?”

The term “Shy Tory” refers to the hidden conservative vote in the UK.

Remaining gives a positive feeling of accepting other races and supporting the unity of Europe, while leaving gives a negative feeling of being a racial discriminator who drives out immigrants and refugees, hindering European unity.

Due to this, when asked by others, many people often say things different from their true feelings or avoid giving a direct answer.

“Economically, the balance may work out in favor of remaining. However, this is a political issue.”

From the start, putting the EU’s compromise plan to a national referendum was a political move in itself.

Politicians in favor of leaving kept silent about the potential repercussions of Brexit, claiming that if the UK exits the EU, a new era will dawn.

Their argument is to stop or expel incoming immigrants and refugees, break free from the EU’s unnecessary regulations to reclaim British sovereignty, and use the large sums previously allocated to the EU for the benefit of the locals.

Just listening to their words makes it seem like a bright future lies ahead.

One should not easily believe the words of financial experts and politicians.

“Above all, what voters hold a grudge against is the issue of immigration and refugees.”

Ellie nodded her head.

“That’s true. After a long time, I visited London and the city’s appearance has completely changed. Most cleaners and laborers can’t speak proper English and are immigrants from Eastern Europe, causing unease among many.”

It’s the same in our country. It’s become common to see Chinese-Korean ahjummas working in restaurants. In areas like Daerim-dong, it’s hard to tell whether you’re among Koreans or Chinese, and places like Ansan, with dense industrial zones, overflow with laborers from Bangladesh or Uzbekistan.

While some advocate for integrating them into our society, others hold negative views, believing that foreigners take away jobs and commit crimes, fueling resentment against them.

“Moreover, the pride of the British has been significantly hurt.”

Once, Britain was an empire on which the sun never set. Though that era of glory has passed, the prestige enjoyed during the days of the British Empire still fuels the pride of the British.

Now, however, the country with the most influence within the EU is Germany.

When the UK requested authority to prevent immigrants from flooding the EU executive, the German Chancellor rejected this demand.

The freedom of movement between EU member states must be ensured, and if this cannot be accepted, then the UK must leave the EU.

Even though compromises were offered on other issues, the UK’s pride had already been greatly compromised. The current discussion about refugee quotas is also being carried out largely by Germany, disregarding the wishes of the UK.

With dissatisfaction mixed with complaints about being no different from being under German rule, and a sigh mixed with self-reflection about how Britain ended up being a country where even the UK can’t control borders as they like, it’s possible for such sentiments to burst out.

To them, the politicians’ slogan of leaving the EU and returning to the sovereignty of nation-states inevitably sounds appealing.

Considering these points, it’s not impossible for the withdrawal advocates to emerge victorious.

Hyunjoo suddenly said as she listened quietly, “There’s a point. Nowadays, there’s a prevailing atmosphere of extreme right-wing ideology throughout Europe. Still, it must be seen that the scales are tilted towards the remain camp.”

“This is good for us, isn’t it?”

Using horse racing as an example, a horse that everyone predicts to win usually doesn’t have high odds. However, if an unexpected horse wins, the payout could be hundreds of times the bet. This is exactly the current situation.

When everyone talks about remaining, I am the only one shouting ‘Brexit’ at the center of the world. I might be seen as crazy for a while, but the conversation will change when the results come out.

I shared the information I had prepared at home.

“I’ve outlined the main strategy, so please prepare the detailed tactics individually.”

Hyunjoo and Sangyeop couldn’t conceal their shock after reading it.

Sangyeop, in confusion, said, “Wait, is this for real? Are you really planning to do this?”

“Yes.”

Hyunjoo shook her head.

“This is too risky.”

“The vote will pass, and Brexit will happen. So, trust me and follow along.”

Among numerous arguments, the most certain one is foresight. But that’s a secret I can’t reveal.

The core of my strategy can be summarized into two points: first, borrowing as much as possible, and second, leveraging as much as possible.

Fortunately, in the foreign exchange market, there is a wonderful(?) derivative called FX Margin (Foreign Exchange Margin).

By utilizing this, it is possible to bet more than ten times the capital one holds.

Everyone’s faces turned pale.

Ellie had a puzzled expression.

“What’s the reason? Jinho has earned plenty of money up to now. Maybe he couldn’t have done better than that even if he started over from the beginning. But why are you trying to make such risky investments now?”

She was right.

For several days, I also pondered over that problem.

The estimated assets of OTK Company are approximately $10 billion. Including its subsidiary, K Company, it is about $11 billion.

In Korean won, it’s roughly 12 trillion won.

Eighty percent of it is my share, so my assets amount to 9.6 trillion won.

With this amount, I would rank within the top 10 wealthiest in Korea. As time goes by, companies will continue to grow, and my assets will keep increasing.

In this situation, is there a need to make unreasonable investments? Can’t I just sit still and wait for my assets to grow on their own?

However…

An opportunity to devour the global financial market was right in front of me.

I said to Taekgyu, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. We can’t predict if such a huge opportunity will come within the next few years, and even if it does, there’s no guarantee that I can foresee it.

Hence, I must not miss this opportunity at any cost.

I looked around at everyone and said,

“If there’s a chance to make money, we should make money. Do we need any other reasons?”

If it were like the L6 situation before, I would have avoided derivative investments. But now, the timing is clearly defined until the voting day.

If you are confident, you must be prepared and jump in. Just investing and watching from the sidelines doesn’t suit my nature.

Senior Sangyeop spoke as if he was lamenting.

“If we fail, everything will go up in smoke. OTK Company, K Company, they will all disappear into thin air.”

I asked while looking at Senior Sangyeop.

“Do you remember the winter two years ago?”

“Uh, yeah?”

“Back then, both you and I were penniless. Yet in less than two years, we’ve made it to where we are now. Why do you think that was possible?”

If we hadn’t sold the put options during the L6 incident, how many years would it have taken to make 600 billion?

If we hadn’t earned like that back then, we wouldn’t have dared to invest in startups later, and our assets wouldn’t have grown to 10 billion dollars.

The world has changed rapidly in a year. More opportunities will arise, and to seize them, we need more money.

“If everything goes, we’ll just start over from scratch. What’s there to worry about?”

Senior Sangyeop loosened his tight necktie. Then he gulped down the drink in front of him in one go.

“You’re right. There must have been good reasons to be sure about Brexit, and when you’re sure, you have to act. Looks like I’ve gotten a bit complacent from making money all this time.”

Senior Sangyeop suddenly had the same look in his eyes as when he came looking to hire me in the past.

Hyunjoo sighed and said, “The decision has already been made, right?”

“Yes.”

“Then I’ll follow the CEO’s decision.”

Taekgyu raised his hand. “I’m definitely in favor.”

Ellie shrugged, “There’s not much I can do to help, but I’ll support you nonetheless.”

“Thank you.”

As the CEO of OTK Company, I said.

“Let’s try to earn some money from now on.”

***

The head of the London Foreign Exchange Exchange, Josh Harrington, was monitoring the foreign exchange market when he detected an unusual trend. For the past few days, there had been a continuous influx of pounds being sold.

“Where on earth are these orders coming from?” he wondered. He instructed his chief dealer, David Enoch, to investigate.

“Take a look and find out,” he said.

While financial firms do not disclose customer information upon inquiry, closely monitoring the flow of funds can reveal the source of the money.

David reported back to Josh, “It’s OTK Company.”

“What?” It was a familiar name.

OTK Company first appeared in the financial market in Korea during the L6 explosion incident. Just before Seosung Electronics’ premium phone L6 was discontinued due to explosions, a particular company amassed a large amount of Seosung Electronics and KOSPI put options.

On a day known as Black Friday in the Korean stock market crash, that company made profits exceeding $500 million.

With this capital as a foundation, about a year ago, it ventured into venture capital, and the value of companies in which it held stakes steadily increased daily.

Among those with a strong presence in the financial markets, hardly anyone would be unfamiliar with the name OTK Company.

However, recently, OTK Company had set its holdings as collateral with financial institutions to obtain loans exceeding $10 billion, causing rumors to spread throughout the financial industry.

What were they planning to do with such a huge borrowed sum? Were they pouring it into the foreign exchange market?

Exchange rates are closely related to a country’s economic strength. The UK plays a key role in the global economy, and the pound was being treated as a reserve currency alongside the euro, yen, and yuan.

As a result, it was not to be taken lightly for foreign exchange speculators. Selling off pounds – does it mean they are predicting a decline in the pound’s value?

“I need to look into this more.”

A few days later, Josh, who had discovered the truth, was shocked.

OTK Company was not just engaging in spot trading, but was involved in FX margin trading. They leveraged up to 10 times to turn 10 billion dollars into 100 billion dollars before placing their bets.

It was truly a crazy thing to do.

If the pound unexpectedly rose by 10 percent, they would lose all their investment capital.

Josh was baffled.

“What on earth are these geeks thinking?”

**”

During a similar period,

The opposite situation was unfolding at the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market.

While it’s said that the market determines exchange rates, there are government entities among the market participants. When the exchange rate rises excessively, the government sells dollars and buys domestic currency, and when it falls excessively, they sell domestic currency and buy dollars to intervene in the market.

Managing the yen’s value is one of the current government’s key policies.

Despite the government continuously buying dollars to devalue the yen, the exchange rate was, in fact, dropping.

This was because a specific faction kept selling dollars and buying yen.

“Who is the buyer?”

“It’s OTK Company!”

While OTK Company was selling pounds on the London Foreign Exchange Market, they were buying yen at the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market.

The implications of this situation were clear.

Yamazaki Hitoshi, the head of the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market, muttered as he saw the increasing buy orders.

“Could it be… betting on Brexit?”