An Investor Who Sees The Future

Taek-gyu said:

“Oh! I just had a great idea. What do you think?”

Usually, when he says something like that, it’s nonsense.

This time too, I have a bad feeling.

“What is it?”

Taek-gyu’s proposal was simple.

“I’ll provide the capital, you use your superpower. We invest together and split the profits fifty-fifty. How does that sound?”

“Wow…”

Predicting and splitting it fifty-fifty using a superpower?

It’s a tempting offer, but investing always comes with potential losses, despite how good the proposal may seem. While no one invests with the intention of losing money, in reality, there are more people who have lost than gained through investments.

“What if things go south? Will I take half back?”

“Do you have the money to take back? Sometimes it’s just inevitable.”

He’s right.

If I lose a significant amount of money, I have no way to take it back. In the end, profits will be split evenly, but Taek-gyu will bear the losses alone.

Is it even legal to make such a contract?

“It’s a gamble with money to make money.”

If possible, I would like to do it as many times as I could.

However, there is a major issue in reality. Even if Taek-gyu claims it’s a superpower, there’s no guarantee that what I see is always 100% accurate. It might just be showing a random future with a reasonably high probability.

Can I really trust only the holograms that appear before my eyes and make investments?

In investments, information must have clear sources and bases. Information without these is practically useless.

Even if he has been right all this time, what if he’s wrong next time?

Even if all the swans you have seen so far are white, there is no law in the world that says there are no black swans.

If Oracle is wrong and loses billions, can we handle that situation?

But what if superpowers are real?

As Taekgyu said, this is a tremendous opportunity. I have superpowers, and Taekgyu has 13 billion won.

Just by investing based on Oracle’s predictions, can’t we make a huge amount of money?

Taekgyu confidently extended his right hand to me as I hesitated.

“Friend, take my hand. Let’s invest together if you do.”

“What if I don’t?”

“Then we’re done seeing each other for good.”

I alternated my gaze between Taekgyu’s face and the hand he offered.

After pondering for a moment, my phone suddenly rang.

Ring ring!

It was my childhood friend Minyoung. I decided to answer the call for now.

“Hello.”

[“I’m meeting with Ki Hong at a bar in Hongdae later. Since you got discharged, he wants us to meet up.”]

Ki Hong was a senior in the business department when I enrolled. He was well-liked and popular among juniors, regardless of gender.

We had a good relationship from participating in club activities together.

I hadn’t seen him since the military, but I heard he graduated and got a job at KYB Investment Securities.

“How long do we have?”

[“We are meeting at the bar in front of the school in an hour.”]

“Got it.”

I turned to Taekgyu and said, “I have a prior engagement, let’s discuss this in detail when I get back.”

As I stealthily stepped back, Taekgyu shouted in surprise, “Hey! Don’t go, dude!”

—

As I entered the underground bar, Minyoung and Kyeongil were seated and waving at me.

Minyoung waved her hand, “Hey, Kang Jin-hoo!”

“I’m a reservist now.”

Kyeongil chuckled and asked, “How long has it been? Coming back from the military soon?”

I honestly replied, “Try not to go if possible.”

I met my classmates after almost 2 years. But thanks to frequently keeping in touch with Minyoung, I knew a bit about what had been happening in our department.

On the opposite side, two unfamiliar female students were sitting.

“Who…?”

I asked, and Kyeongil responded, “Oh, let me introduce you. The freshmen who entered this year. This is our classmate Kang Jinhoo, recently discharged from the military.”

The girls stood up, bowed their heads politely, and greeted me, “Hello, senior. We’ve heard a lot about you from Minyoung senior.”

The tall, blonde-haired female student was named Shin Yuri, while the short-haired female student was Hwang Ji-hye.

Considering that my height had decreased since being discharged not long ago, both of them were quite attractive.

Due to the nature of the business administration department, where there is a strong male presence, the number of female students has increased in recent years, but it is still predominantly male, with about a 7:3 ratio.

Therefore, female freshmen are welcome beings in themselves.

Compared to Minyoung, who dressed hastily, Kyeongil was in a state of readiness, even having wax in his hair.

Without reason, Kyeongil lowered his voice and spoke to Yuri.

“Drink slowly, Yuri.”

“Yes, senior.”

“When you become a sophomore, you will take Professor Kim Myungjoon’s classes. Could you give advice about his teaching style?”

He was focusing on giving lectures to a female junior even though he had messed up all his grades. He was proud as a fellow student but it was too much.

“What about Gihong senior?”

“He’s running late due to something. Let’s just drink among ourselves for now.”

Kyeongil poured me a drink in my glass.

“Planning to return to school next year?”

“I’m considering it.”

Family matters and tuition fees are completely sorted out. There is no problem in returning to school.

It would be best to return as soon as possible and graduate quickly, right?

We clinked our glasses and caught up on overdue conversations. When my glass was empty and I tried to pour more, another hand grabbed the soju bottle first.

“I’ll pour for you.”

Yuri filled my glass with alcohol.

“Oh, thank you.”

“Pour me a drink too.”

I poured alcohol into her glass.

“Drink well.”

Kyeongil, who was already drunk at a similar pace, was babbling nonsense. Hwang Ji-hye also seemed half asleep, possibly also drunk.

But apart from her slightly flushed cheeks, Shin Yuri looked fine.

She smiled and said, “I’m good with up to three bottles of soju. Young people these days have quite the alcohol tolerance.”

As we kept drinking on empty stomachs, we quickly started feeling tipsy.

After laughing and chatting for about 30 minutes, a man in his late twenties dressed in a suit and tie walked in.

Minyoung quickly raised her hand. “Welcome, senior!”

“Have you all been doing well?” he asked.

Usually seen in a university hoodie, seeing him in a suit felt different. He could be described as professional in a good way, or old-fashioned in a bad way.

Senior Gihong sat down and said, “Hey! Long time no see, Kang Jinhoo. How was your military service?”

“Good.”

“When you get leave, at least let us know, buddy.”

I chuckled. “You’ve been busy with getting a job. How have you been?”

“Just living day by day.”

Minyoung poured soju into Senior Gihong’s glass.

“It’s better than not getting a job like some other seniors. Isn’t the financial sector reducing new hires these days?”

Senior Gihong downed his soju with a tired expression. “Seems like it. Commercial banks might be okay, but investment banks will have even fewer new hires next year compared to this year.”

Banks are broadly divided into two types: Commercial Banks and Investment Banks.

Commercial banks make profits through deposits and loans, while investment banks raise capital to make profits through investments.

In Korea, the former are simply called banks, and the latter are referred to as securities firms or investment trust companies.

KYB Securities, where Senior Kihong joined, is naturally an investment bank.

“These days, there are talks of restructuring and reshuffling of personnel. The company atmosphere is quite unsettling,” said, surprised.

“Restructuring? But KYB Securities is doing well,” he asked.

“Just because it’s doing well? This time, KYB Securities and Duri Securities are merging. After the merger of the 2nd and 4th largest securities firms by capital, once the merger is complete, they will rise to the top in the industry. The emergence of a large-scale IB is a good thing, but from an employee’s perspective, it’s not such good news. After the merger, there will definitely be significant layoffs. Employees with overlapping roles will need to be reassigned or resign on their own,” explained Kihong.

“Isn’t it okay for a new employee like me?” asked Kyeongil.

Restructuring typically targets employees with high salaries and long tenures.

Unlike other professions, securities firms generally have a relatively short retirement age. It’s not easy to hold onto a position even in your 40s.

“I’m thinking about offering voluntary retirement to new employees too. It’s a dilemma as work isn’t as enjoyable as I expected,” Kihong shared.

“What will you do if you leave?”

“I’ll look into the private equity fund sector. I’ve always been interested in mergers and acquisitions,” he replied.

Private Equity Funds differ from typical mutual funds as they aim to acquire companies by receiving large investments from a few investors.

Minyoung sighed and said, “I thought finding a job would be the end, but it seems not.”

“That’s the truth,” Kihong agreed, downing his drink.

Minyoung and Kyeongil’s expressions darkened. Hearing such discussions naturally brings worries about employment.

In times of economic prosperity and a booming stock market, graduating from a business school was once considered a sure thing. But that’s an old story now.

The shadow of youth unemployment that covered South Korea in the 21st century was unavoidable even for the financial sector. With most transactions being digitized and tellers disappearing, the financial sector was on a trend of reducing workforce. Senior Gihong, who succeeded in finding a job at once, was a lucky case. There were quite a few seniors who either pursued a completely different career path or delayed graduation because they couldn’t find employment. Studying diligently for employment from now on would still not be enough to avoid that fate.

Starting with soju, beer was added to the drinking sessions, and gradually they began mixing soju with beer.

Gihong had a tendency to become talkative when drunk. With his face flushed, he continued to speak his mind.

“For decades after the Korean War, the manufacturing industry grew dazzlingly. There were dozens of well-known companies like Seong Electronics or Eunsung Motors. However, is there a single financial institution among banks, securities firms, or fund companies that foreigners would recognize?”

“No.”

“On the other hand, international investment banks like Pech, Moody’s, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs are encroaching on the Korean market. Who is the leading company in Korea?”

Min-young responded, “Seong Electronics.”

“Everyone says that. But frankly, is Seong Electronics really a Korean company?”

“The chairman is Korean. It’s listed on the KOSPI.”

“Then what about the Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba? CEO Jack Ma is Chinese, but the company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. And what about Lotte Group? Many of its subsidiaries are listed on the stock exchange, and although most of its revenue comes from Korea, the chairman is a Korean-Japanese and the holding company is in Japan.”

“Well…”

Gihong interjected, “Foreigners hold 53% of Seong Electronics shares. Half of the market capitalization is divided among foreign IBs, wealth funds, private equity funds, and pension funds. Seong Electronics is not alone in this situation. A third of the stock market is owned by foreigners. Yet every year, when the season comes, the media starts clamoring about how much foreigners took in dividends, or how much they made from the price difference.”

“Isn’t it natural for them to take profits if they invest?” I asked.

Gihong nodded, “Right. That’s exactly what I’m trying to say. Who owns the multi-story buildings in Yeouido? The hotels along the Han River? The franchise chains like Hengbune Jjigae, Lydia Coffee, Master Pizza in every neighborhood? They are all owned by foreign capital. Even the QB beer we are drinking now!”

While drinking SoMaek (Soju and beer mixed together), Kyeongil, burping, said:

“Isn’t QB Beer ours?”

“You think all Korean beers taste bad? Jusan Group sold it to KRR, which is a British PEF. KRR then sold it to TM Consortium five years later. Made a profit five times its value.”