An Investor Who Sees The Future

We had a video call in our hotel room.

Behind Hyunjoo noona, who looked very angry, Ellie waved her hand with a bright smile. Even though it was a video call, seeing her face made me happy.

“You’re going to support Ronald? Are you out of your mind?”

Taekgyu, feeling flustered, tried to calm down Hyunjoo noona.

“No, noona. Calm down first.”

Noona found out about this because we talked about it… No, it was because it was reported in the media.

I looked at the New York Times on the table.

[Ronald Stamper, Secret Contact with OTK Company]

Republican presidential candidate Ronald Stamper, after finishing his campaign in LA, was confirmed to have secretly contacted OTK Company at his own hotel. He postponed his scheduled events and talked for over an hour. It’s reported that talks of millions of dollars in sponsorship were exchanged.

OTK Company is known as an investment company that doesn’t hesitate to invest in venture capital, foreign exchange markets, and derivatives. During the recent Brexit crisis, they made billions by selling pounds, earning the nickname “Vulture Fund.”

Ronald has criticized Wall Street financiers for sponsoring Diane’s campaign. However, it was revealed that he received hefty donations from OTK Company, leading to public criticism.

We never expected meeting Ronald to become such a big issue.

Mainstream media mostly favored Diane, reporting in a negative tone as if they had caught onto a weakness.

Instead of explaining, Ronald’s camp intentionally raised suspicions to use the media’s criticism as a dramatic twist.

Using the media without spending a penny on advertising. Indeed quite the businessman, isn’t he?

“Why did you meet Ronald in the first place? Do you even know how the US presidential election is going right now?”

Hyunjoo noona’s words prompted Taekgyu to mention Trump confidently.

“If we were to compare the election to a poker game…”

“Why bring up Trump? Can’t you leave that out?”

“Yes!”

Taekgyu responded with a pout.

“Why are you mad at me? It was Jinhoo’s decision.”

Indeed, this kid can’t do anything against his sister.

Hyunjoo Noona reached outside the screen and soon put a cigarette in her mouth. Ellie lit it as if she had been waiting.

“Phew.”

Hyunjoo Noona took a deep breath. The smoke from the cigarette seemed to permeate through the screen to where they were sitting.

“Why did you suddenly get involved in another country’s presidential election after saying you would invest in the auto industry upon meeting CarOS?”

I spoke towards the screen.

“The US market is that important. If Ronald is elected, car companies with production bases in the US will benefit, while companies producing elsewhere for export will be at a disadvantage.”

For example, Eunsung Motors.

Eunsung Motors operates a factory in Georgia. But that alone is not enough, so they have three factories in Mexico, one of which is currently under construction.

If Ronald becomes president, Eunsung Motors, which exports a lot to the US, will be hit hard.

On the other hand, we could establish ourselves in the US market, benefiting from various incentives and support from the next government. Whether the cars produced there will be marketable is a different issue.

“Well said, but that’s if Ronald becomes president.”

I said confidently.

“Ronald will become president.”

Ellie’s eyes widened in surprise.

“That’s unbelievable.”

“When have I said nonsense?”

“Well, that’s true, but…”

I was so sure because I had seen the prophecy.

If I hadn’t seen the prophecy, I wouldn’t have even imagined Ronald becoming president.

Hyunjoo Noona pressed her forehead, seemingly troubled.

“How is it possible that Ronald becomes president? Even with the current approval ratings?”

“Just because one wins the most votes doesn’t mean they become president.”

The U.S. election we call the presidential election is actually the election of each state’s electors, not the president directly. These electors then vote to elect the President of the United States.

One interesting point is that the winner takes all of the state’s electors regardless of the vote percentage.

Therefore, what matters is not the total number of votes but how many electoral votes you secure. Even if the vote count is high, if you lag in electoral votes, you will ultimately lose.

In reality, there have been cases in the past where candidates have won elections by securing a majority of electoral votes despite receiving fewer votes.

“Diane currently has a stable base of 350 electoral votes.”

There are a total of 538 electoral votes.

To become president, a candidate needs to secure at least 270 votes.

“Why on earth is Ronald trying to take away 80 votes from there?”

There are regions where the Democratic Party is strong, and others where the Republican Party has a stronghold. In those states, the electoral votes are pretty much locked in for each candidate.

Whether the difference is just 1% or a whopping 90%, the results remain the same, so it’s okay to give up on such places altogether.

Instead, efforts are focused on winning even just one more battleground state. The outcome will be determined by how many electoral votes are secured from that region.

“The Rust Belt will go to Ronald.”

“What?”

Both Hyunjoo and Ellie were surprised at the same time.

I explained what I talked about with Ronald for an hour.

***

Around the Great Lakes region in the United States lies a vast industrial area known as the Rust Belt.

This region, encompassing Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and parts of New York, was once the hub of American manufacturing.

Replacing the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, Britain, the U.S. established a mass production system exemplified by Fordism and led the Allied Powers to victory in World War II with overwhelming industrial output.

However, with the advent of neoliberalism, goods began flooding in from Asia. Japan exported goods, including automobiles and electronics, to the U.S., followed by South Korea and eventually China joining the export race.

As trade regulations were successively lifted, American manufacturing began to decline in the late 20th century. The automobile industry was no exception to this trend.

During the financial crisis, American car companies went bankrupt one after another. Thanks to bailout funds, they managed to revive, but plant closures and layoffs followed.

Kevin Lewis was a laborer working for a subcontractor at a car factory in Detroit.

However, the factory he worked at relocated to Mexico last year because labor costs were cheaper there.

That day, Kevin and his colleagues at the factory all lost their jobs and ended up relying on government unemployment benefits.

His dreams were modest.

He wanted to be a great husband and a proud father, even if he couldn’t achieve great success. But being laid off even robbed him of such dreams.

Those who haven’t experienced it will never know the self-doubt that comes from feeling useless for not going to work even on weekdays, just sitting at home.

All he could do was watch TV blankly. Sometimes he would meet his laid-off friends at a pub, drink beer, and reminisce about the good old days.

Back then, the conveyor belts kept running non-stop, and they worked tirelessly to meet the incoming orders.

With the money he earned, he bought a car, a house, got married. Children were born without causing too much trouble, and he worked even harder to take care of his family.

But this was the result.

Stores closed down, the streets became desolate. Young people left in search of jobs elsewhere, and houses remained unsold.

Empty houses with signs that read ‘For Sale’ in the front yard.

During the 8 years of Democratic rule, nothing improved. Life continued to be difficult after the financial crisis, but the media kept claiming that the economy was recovering.

Financial firms on Wall Street partied with money every day, while Silicon Valley struggled to find enough IT talent.

So, what difference did it make?

He became unemployed, the city was dying.

Election season came again, and the Democratic candidate, Diane, kept repeating the same old story. But the Republican candidate, Ronald, was different.

Unlike other politicians, he spoke bluntly about the reality of America.

Detroit, with its substantial working-class population, had long been a stronghold of the Democratic Party. Since becoming an adult, Kevin had never voted for anyone other than a Democratic candidate.

Ronald is campaigning in the Rust Belt, shouting that he must revive American manufacturing, but during this time, Diane remained uninvolved.

The Democratic Party has no interest in the working class, so why should we vote for them?

This city needed a change.

That day, Kevin placed a sign with Ronald’s name engraved on it in the yard. He also joined the local Republican Party.

Kevin convinced his friends to vote for Ronald, but most of them reacted negatively.

“Ronald is a corrupt businessman, indeed.”

“I don’t like Diane, but Ronald is the real issue.”

“What difference will it make if Ronald becomes president?”

Then, news arrived that Ronald would campaign in Detroit again.

At the campaign venue, a football stadium, not only Republicans but any U.S. citizen with voting rights could attend.

People flocked from Detroit, nearby cities, and rural areas like clouds.

With over 40,000 seats fully packed, even opposing supporters from the Democratic stronghold were present.

Media coverage was intense, cameras broadcasting the atmosphere live.

As excitement rose, Ronald Stamper finally appeared at the stadium.

“Wow!”

“Cheers and boos erupted simultaneously.

Ronald, seeming unaffected by the situation, smiled calmly and waved to his supporters.

Standing on the stage in the middle of the stadium, Ronald took the microphone and began his speech.

“There are many great American citizens here. Wow! And over there, I see people sent by Diane. Did she pay you to come here with pickets? Well, the Democratic Party has plenty of campaign funds. Why? Because she’s hanging out with corrupt businessmen and financiers.”

They must be talking about Ronald Stamper from the very beginning, pulling no punches.

“Oooh!”

Amidst jeers coming from all directions, Ronald didn’t pay any attention.

“In the past, Detroit was the symbol of American manufacturing. It was the mecca of the automobile industry with the dense presence of the factories of the three major U.S. automakers – GM, Ford, Chrysler. It was once known as Motor City. But where have those companies all gone now? Is it because people are not driving cars anymore? Are they all riding carriages? Or maybe walking on two legs like primitives?”

Bowing his waist, Ronald swung the microphone like an axe, mimicking a primitive, which elicited laughter from the crowd at his ridiculous gesture.

Ronald raised his hand and shouted, “I understand the reason. You all know it too. Our automobile industry has been completely ravaged by South Korea and Japan! Hyundai and Toyota are flooding the U.S. market with millions of cars each year, fattening themselves. They don’t buy American cars, so why should we buy their country’s cars?”

Upon his words, cries of anger erupted among his supporters.

“Wow!”

“Ronald! Ronald!”

Cabin also shouted Ronald’s name hoarsely.

In response, opposing supporters shouted, “Diane! Diane!”

“Corrupt elites, get out!”

“Detroit supports the Democratic Party!”

Normally, he would have immediately chased them away from his campaign trail, or rather not let them in at all. But today was different.

They were extras who would further highlight him.

“What have the Democrats done in the past 8 years? They’ve completely ruined America. Yet, Diane chats amicably with Wall Street financiers, talking about America’s future. She’s a liar!”

A middle-aged woman holding a picket with Diane’s name shouted from the front row.

“You played with financiers too!”

Ronald didn’t miss that remark. It could be said that he deliberately provoked her to say those words.

“It seems that the woman here has something to say to me. Please give the microphone to her.”

The staff handed her the microphone, and the camera focused on the woman’s face.

The middle-aged woman spoke sharply to Ronald.

“A while ago, you met with OTK Company and received tens of millions of dollars. You’re a liar! A big liar!”

Ronald smiled inwardly and confidently replied, “Yes, I did meet with the CEO of OTK Company and asked for help.”

The reporters were surprised.

Ronald had consistently avoided giving straightforward answers to the media’s criticism. However, he confessed to this fact on this occasion.

Diane’s supporters began to jeer.

“Boo!”

“Get lost, Ronald!”

Ronald raised his hands and shrugged, gesturing as if to say, “What can I do about it?”

When the jeers subsided a bit, Ronald grabbed the microphone again.

“Did I say I was taking campaign funds? The media are all liars. Don’t believe what they say. What I received was not campaign funds, just a single promise.”

It was time to drop the bombshell.

Looking around the campaign rally with exaggerated gestures and a louder voice, Ronald shouted, “I have secured a commitment from OTK Company to invest 20 billion dollars in the US automotive industry! We will restart the factories in Detroit! We will hire unemployed citizens, not illegal immigrants! We will reopen closed shops and restaurants, revitalize the city! If the Democrats have let this become a fallen industrial city, I will turn it into a city of light!”