An Investor Who Sees The Future

OTK Company was pouring money into the foreign exchange market, while Sangyeop, a senior at K Company, used the domestic startup stake held by K Company as collateral to raise money from various sources. In this way, the accumulated amount, combined with existing cash assets, totaled 1.1 trillion KRW.

Prior to the upcoming Brexit referendum, Sangyeop used this money to buy put options on global stock markets. If the UK were to exit the EU, it might have uncertain long-term implications, but it would undoubtedly shock the entire financial market in the short term. Such a scenario was unexpected to some extent, and as it was considered unlikely, the impact would be even greater.

World stock markets would likely crash simultaneously. Sangyeop said to me, “I thought borrowing money from a loan company to bet on CL Electronics call options was the craziest thing I’ve ever done in my life. But compared to what I’m doing now, that was nothing. Betting over 1 trillion KRW on derivatives.”

Even though I tried to foresee the outcome, I too felt a sense of dread. It felt like being in a narrow space with water rising up to my waist.

“Let’s hope for the best.”

If successful, the potential profits would be immense. But…

If it failed, it would be the end.

***

With a historic vote approaching, the atmosphere in the UK was tense. On TV, advocates for both Leave and Remain would present their arguments, dividing the nation. Some warned of economic uncertainty if they left, while others believed leaving was the key to economic revival.

Provocation and slander spread, and European Union flags and Union Jacks fluttered in the streets. The UK, ranking fifth globally in terms of economy and a pillar of the EU alongside Germany and France, held immense influence not only in the Commonwealth but also globally.

Therefore, Brexit wasn’t just a matter between the UK and the EU; it was a worldwide event. Financial institutions closely monitored the voting results and the subsequent impact it would have.

As the voting day approached, the financial markets became busier. The markets, including the foreign exchange, stock, and derivatives markets, were overflowing with investors and speculators. Most investors predicted the UK to remain and invested in stocks for price increases and currency depreciation.

However, the world’s largest investment bank, Golden Gate, remained observant. Instead, they disposed of some of their physical stocks and call options.

This was a decision made by the UK branch manager, Ted Brooks. Not long ago, he received a call from the Asia branch.

[I may be overly concerned, but I have a feeling that there could be an unexpected outcome to Brexit. It might be best to wait and see after the voting results.]

“All right.”

Ted deeply respected Chase Southwell and believed there must be a good reason behind his judgment.

As the world’s attention focused on the UK, the day of destiny finally arrived.

At 7 AM UK time, 3 PM Korean time, the referendum asking for Brexit approval began.

This national referendum took place throughout the UK. Residents in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar gathered at polling stations to cast their votes.

The voting process was broadcast in real-time through BBC, CNN, and domestic news channels. I stayed up all night watching the voting progress with Taekgyu.

The voting ended at 6 AM UK time (10 PM UK time). Following the closure of the voting, the opinion poll results that had been banned for several days flooded in.

Taekgyu was bewildered.

“The Remain side is significantly ahead.”

“You can’t trust opinion polls. The real outcome will only be known by checking the ballot boxes.”

Although those were his words, I too was internally shocked.

While I had expected the Remain side to be in the lead, the difference ranged from 5% to 10%. Even accounting for the margin of error, it seemed almost certain that the Remain side had solidified their position.

Can there be a turnaround?

The vote count began immediately. If there is a significant difference in votes, we should get the results quickly, but if it’s a close race, the conclusion may not come until the afternoon.

As I watched the election broadcast, I packed my bag.

“Where are you going?”

“I have to go to school. I have morning classes.”

Taekgyu looked puzzled.

“You’re going to school on such an important day?”

“It’s not like my presence will change anything.”

Voting is over, and the results are in. The vote count is just a process of confirming that.

Actually, missing a day of school wouldn’t matter much. But sitting idle at home was making me anxious.

It’s better to go to school.

“Will you keep watching?”

“Of course. This is a matter of life and death.”

“…”

After hearing this, it dawned on me how real it was to risk everything in another country’s referendum.

“Let’s talk later.”

As I was leaving the house, Taekgyu grabbed my arm.

“Promise me one thing before you go.”

“What is it?”

Taekgyu looked at me seriously.

“If you lose everything and end up in the underworld working, promise to buy me a can of beer on payday.”

“What are you talking about?”

“Just promise me quickly!”

I nodded my head in annoyance.

“Okay, I promise.”

Taekgyu nodded.

“No, come to think of it, one can won’t do. Buy two cans.”

“······I’ll buy two cans.”

It seemed like Taekgyu liked my answer as he nodded.

“Okay.”

I got in the car and headed to school.

***

Despite the Brexit vote overnight, the world remained the same.

The roads were still congested with cars, and people in suits hurried their steps to avoid being late.

Well, not everyone is interested in the affairs of another country.

If I were just a regular university student, I would have been more concerned about the upcoming final exams and reports to submit rather than the UK’s EU withdrawal.

As the car passed through the school gates, I caught a glimpse of Yuri.

I rolled down the window and said, “Yuri, come in.”

“Oops! Jin-hoo sunbae.”

Yuri quickly got into the passenger seat. Leaning back, she let out a long yawn.

“Are you sleepy?”

At my question, Yuri nodded.

“I hardly slept last night.”

“Why?”

“There was the Brexit vote. I was planning to watch a bit and then sleep, but when I came to my senses, it was morning.”

“I see.”

I was in the same boat, having hardly slept a wink.

I met Seon-ah on the way to the Business Administration building after parking. She was with her boyfriend.

Seon-ah greeted me with a smile.

“Hi. It looks like you two came together.”

Yuri replied with a smile, “Yes. I came with Jun-hu senior’s car.”

Rumors about my Porsche Panamera purchase had already spread. Seon-ah seemed curious about it but didn’t ask anything.

Go Junhyung pretended to know me when he saw me.

“Long time no see.”

I nodded in greeting.

“Hello, senior.”

Go Junhyung seemed to remember something.

“I heard you’re close with the CEO of K Company. Can you pass on a message for me?”

“What message?”

“My father wants to meet him once. Tell him to visit the company sometime.”

His father is the president of GH Construction Company, a subsidiary of the GH Group.

It’s impressive that a big company president wants to meet him. Our Sangyeop senior is doing well.

“I’ll talk to him about it next time we meet.”

After today, Sangyeop senior’s position will likely change. He may become someone unreachable even if a conglomerate company president wants to meet him, or he may no longer need to meet with someone who requests it.

I may be in a similar position.

As we were talking, students from the Business Administration department approached us.

“Do you know that the Brexit voting results will be out today? The Economics students are betting on it, would you like to join? You can bet from 10,000 to 50,000 won. Currently, the Remain side is leading by 7 to 3.”

“······.”

It seems like the betting isn’t over yet.

I took out a 50,000 won bill and handed it to the supervisor.

“I’ll bet on the withdrawal side.”

“Yes. I’ve received 50,000 won.”

The supervisor took the money, checked my name and the amount in the ledger.

Watching this, Go Jun-hyung pulled out his wallet.

“This should be fun. I’ll bet on the remaining side.”

“Okay, senior.”

The supervisor asked Yuri, “What about you, Yuri?”

“I’ll bet on the withdrawal side, following Senior Jin-hoo.”

“Are you okay with the majority favoring remaining?”

Upon my question, Yuri looked at me and winked.

“Seniors are usually good at predicting these things.”

I muttered my inner thoughts, “This time, we really need to do as predicted…”

***

As soon as the employees of K Company arrived at work, they gathered in the meeting room.

The CEO, Park Sang-yeop, had stayed up all night at the office. He continued to hold his position without even freshening up.

On one side of the meeting room, two TVs were set up, broadcasting CNN and BBC.

The election results were being broadcasted in real-time.

Contrary to the expectation of a significant lead for the remaining side, the competition was intense. However, the fact that the remaining side was in the lead remained unchanged.

In the early stages of vote counting, although the gap that was over 5 percent has slightly decreased, even as the voter turnout exceeded 50 percent, the remain side remained dominant with a 52 to 48 lead.

With easing concerns over Brexit, a sense of relief spread across the global economy. Asian markets rose together, and exchange rates stabilized.

And…

The value of the put options purchased by K Company in the Asian markets hit rock bottom. Billions were wiped out in an instant.

The upcoming situations in the European and American markets were also predictable.

Everyone maintained silence without speaking a word.

Park Sangyeop continued to watch the TV with a vacant expression. Jung Gihong said to him,

“Se-Senior Sangyeop. What should we do about this? Are we going to ruin everything like this? Please say something. Senior!”

He was so flustered that he even forgot that they should address him as ‘representative’ in the company. However, no one pointed that out.

After a moment, regaining his composure, Park Sangyeop said as if sighing,

“Um, I’ll make a quick call and come back.”

Is the future predetermined or can it be changed?

This was my biggest concern. The fear that due to our actions, voters who wanted to leave might turn towards remaining.

To avoid such a situation, instead of dumping the stocks in a short period, we moved cautiously over a month. Of course, everyone seemed to have grasped what we were up to.

Fortunately, the fierce confrontation between the two camps continued, and the financial market issues took a backseat. Thanks to government and financial institution interventions, the exchange rate remained stable, and no one paid attention to the foreign exchange market.

I don’t even know how much time has passed.

Under the current circumstances, I couldn’t focus on the lecture. The last time I checked, the voter turnout had exceeded 30 percent, with a 4 percent lead in favor of remaining.

In Scotland and Northern Ireland, the remaining side was dominant, while in Wales, the leave side had a slight edge.

The key lies in England. The number of voters in England outweighs all other regions combined. Therefore, depending on the voting difference in England, the decision between remaining or leaving will be made.

Yuri spoke softly.

“I think I’ve been getting calls from my senior since earlier.”

“Oh?”

It was then that I realized my phone was vibrating in my pocket.

Even though I was in the middle of a class, I got up from my seat in a hurry.

Professor Kim Myoung-joon asked with a surprised expression, “What’s the matter?”

“I’ll take the call and be back.”

***

I stepped out into the hallway and pressed the call button.

I heard the voice of Hyun-joo Noona.

[Are you watching the polling situation?]

“Yes.”

[Even though the voter turnout has surpassed half, the remaining side is still leading with 52 to 48.]

Everyone seemed confident in the remaining side. The global economy breathed a sigh of relief. The stock market rose, the value of the pound went up, and the yen went down.

I couldn’t gauge how much the losses would be. How much could OTK Company recover from the money poured into the foreign exchange market and how much could K Company recover from buying put options?

Money that I had not even touched, money that existed only as numbers in my accounts, slipped through my fingers like sand.

It was hard to keep a clear mind.

It felt like water was rising up to my nostrils.

Had I made a mistake?

Had I misjudged something? Had I done something wrong?

What had I missed, exactly?

I asked Hyun-joo Noona, “How much is the remaining amount now?”

[3.2 billion dollars.]

To prepare for margin calls exceeding expectations due to exchange rate fluctuations and for the worst-case scenario where forecasts go wrong, I had retained 30 percent of the funds.

It was a moment to make a decision.

Whether to use up all the remaining ammunition now or save it for the next battle.

Hyun-joo Noona said calmly,

[Jin-hoo, it’s enough at this point. Let’s stop now. If we withdraw, we can salvage a few companies including CarOS and Faceit.]

If nothing happened even after using up all the remaining ammunition, it would be over. OTK Company and K Company would lose everything and go bankrupt.

“I…”.

The moment I opened my mouth,

A hologram appeared in front of me.

“…”

It was exactly the same as what I had seen three months ago. Even though the vote had ended, the future had not changed.

The UK was going to leave the EU!

“Jin-hoo, are you listening?”

“Yes. I’m listening.”

With a firm resolve, I gave the final instruction.

“Sell all the remaining amount of funds with 50 times leverage on the pound.”