Professor Mohan warned that if the Big One struck, it could result in the deaths of one million people.
People scoffed, dismissing it as nonsense. However, when the Big One actually hit, it became clear how misguided that skepticism had been.
Had preparations not been made, it would not have been surprising if two million had died.
Conversely, despite those preparations, the combined number of dead and missing reached 70,000. Efforts to rescue survivors and recover bodies were ongoing, yet the death toll continued to rise.
San Francisco was completely devastated. The only consolation was that the southern part of Silicon Valley, along with Fremont and Oakland, suffered less damage.
Despite this being the worst disaster in history, the United States still showcased its resilience.
The government and businesses continued to operate as normal, with the financial and industrial systems functioning without issue.
In fact, compared to the chaos before the Big One, things seemed to be running more smoothly now.
Ronald lived in a shelter with his aides, sharing meals and sleeping alongside the displaced individuals.
Most external schedules were delegated to the cabinet, allowing him to focus entirely on coordinating rescue efforts. He also held daily press briefings to keep the public updated on the situation.
American media actively participated in this effort.
While it might be seen as a show, it was enough to create the impression that the president was with the people.
Just before the impeachment crisis, Ronald’s approval rating had plummeted to a historic low of 5 percent—an outcome often attributed to misdialed phone calls.
However, a recent opinion poll reported a staggering 92 percent approval rating. When asked about the effectiveness of their preparations for the Big One, 97 percent responded positively.
Such approval ratings were more typical of a dictatorship.
After all, if not for Ronald, who else could have made such decisive choices?
Following the disaster, the scandals—both Russian and sexual—that had plagued his administration since the start faded into oblivion.
In the current climate, no one could afford to attack Ronald.
Those who had participated in the impeachment now pleaded tearfully for forgiveness, promising to support both crisis management and future governance, regardless of party lines.
Yet some could not escape accountability.
Those who led the impeachment, Governor Simon Underwood and Vice President Bauer, as well as Governor Martin Olbright, who had shifted the blame for the Bluebell fire disaster onto Ronald, could be considered politically finished.
***
The shelters were overflowing with the influx of evacuees.
The United States showcased its immense technological prowess and staggering production capacity to the world during the last two world wars.
American companies mobilized their technical skills and production capabilities to build large-scale temporary housing in Nevada, adjacent to California’s state border.
Countless modular homes sprang up in the barren landscape. The evacuees will have to live there for years until the city is rebuilt.
The U.S. government officially began fundraising. The amount exceeded $10 billion in just a few days.
Every country drained their treasury to contribute, and corporations donated anywhere from millions to billions of dollars. People worldwide willingly participated in donations, hoping for the recovery of the U.S.
In addition, relief supplies and firefighters from various countries arrived in California one after the other. Allied nations even considered dispatching military forces.
Unlike other presidents, who might have declined some help for appearances’ sake, Ronald didn’t. He encouraged even more support.
“America needs more assistance. Think of what the U.S. has done for the world over the years. It’s time to give back!”
This wasn’t about reclaiming past generosity with a single funeral expense. (The U.S., as the world’s wealthiest nation, also provided the most foreign aid.)
Nonetheless, the need for support was genuine.
While recovery could wait, rescue was urgent. Due to the vast extent of the disaster, even the military struggled with manpower shortages.
Troops from allied nations steadily arrived in California and were seamlessly integrated under the command of the U.S. military for rescue operations.
South Korea sent the second largest contingent after the U.K. Perhaps it was due to the blood alliance with the U.S. but…
“They probably intend to offer manpower instead of money.”
“There are plenty of soldiers in Korea who can be employed for a tenth of minimum wage.”
A few years ago, I was one of them.
I looked at Chairman Im Jin-yong, who was sitting next to me.
He flew to California as soon as the incident occurred, overseeing the employees of the American corporation and checking the company’s situation. He met with Ronald and expressed that Seosung Group would cooperate as much as possible, both now and in the future.
In this major earthquake, Seosung Electronics played an enormous role. Most of the equipment used for rescue and the electronic devices in the shelters are Seosung products.
Most importantly, by immediately transmitting the information of smartphone users in the disaster areas to the integrated disaster headquarters, countless lives were saved.
Thanks to this, Seosung’s recognition within the United States has significantly increased.
I thought I would just meet Ronald and return, but Chairman Im Jin-yong has been staying here for several days, helping volunteers.
‘Are you not tired?’
‘I’m fine.’
Even though he said that, he looked quite exhausted. The position of chairman doesn’t usually involve physical labor.
Chairman Im Jin-yong wiped his sweat and said, ‘I knew it, but it’s still America. No matter how prepared you are, to proceed with rescue and recovery so quickly is impressive. If a similar earthquake occurred in China, it would probably have resulted in over a million casualties.’
Indeed, during the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, the Chinese government initially showed confusion, resulting in damage that included a death toll and missing persons of over 100,000.
‘This is America’s strength.’
It’s not just a hegemon for nothing.
Chairman Im Jin-yong smiled.
‘It’s a great relief that companies in Silicon Valley are unscathed.’
Apple and Google are Seosung’s competitors as well as collaborators. If the IT industry had collapsed, the semiconductor demand would have drastically decreased, severely impacting Seosung as well.
‘The earthquake will bring about many changes. The fate of companies will hinge on how they respond moving forward.’
I nodded.
‘Everyone seems to be moving busily.’
***
Companies began preparing for the aftermath of the earthquake.
Ronald declared from the beginning of his presidency that he would create jobs for American workers. To achieve this, he erected trade barriers and offered tax incentives to companies building factories in the U.S.
Indeed, there were results in reshoring, where factories of American companies that had gone abroad returned home.
However, the increase in jobs was not as expected.
This was inevitable, as no amount of benefits could close the wage gap between American workers and their counterparts in Vietnam or Cambodia.
Originally, reshoring was possible because advancements in robotics and automation allowed a reduction in the number of workers.
However, the San Francisco earthquake resolved the unemployment issue overnight!
There was chaos everywhere as people rushed to produce relief supplies and engage in construction and recovery.
Experts predicted that due to the earthquake’s special circumstances, there would be an economic boom for the next few years. There were prospects of changes in industrial structure and economic landscape.
The crucial question is who will benefit from this.
From a national perspective, obviously, the U.S. is the top priority, followed by China. However, the U.S. would not relinquish a leading role to China, which has rapidly ascended as a G2 power.
Japan, as an ally of the U.S. with capital and technology, faced issues due to yen appreciation driven by a preference for safe assets, naturally falling behind in price competitiveness.
In contrast, South Korea possessed technology and sufficient price competitiveness due to the collapse of the won’s value.
Most importantly, the key player post-quake is Korean!
OTK Company, while a U.S. entity, is headquartered in South Korea. Considering its contributions, OTK Company was highly likely to possess the keys to the future recovery industry.
Korean companies uniformly attempted to contact OTK Company. However, representative Kang Jin-hoo remained in the U.S., while the deputy representative was rarely seen externally.
The only accessible person was Park Sang-yeop, Kang Jin-hoo’s right-hand man and the representative of K Company.
Yet, even that was not easy.
Park Sang-yeop was acutely aware of his position. Therefore, he was unwilling to meet anyone and awaited Kang Jin-hoo’s return.
As the structure and recovery progressed smoothly, the financial market also showed a gradual recovery. However, uncertainties persisted everywhere.
The first factor is the strong dollar.
It is expected that large-scale recovery will take place in the United States, leading to assets that were invested in emerging markets returning to the U.S.
At this time, as foreign currencies are sold and dollars are bought, the value of emerging market currencies decreases while the value of the dollar increases, following the principles of supply and demand.
This was similar during the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake when Japanese capital scattered globally returned simultaneously, resulting in a temporary appreciation of the yen.
For the time being, the U.S. will act like a black hole, absorbing money from around the world.
If the dollar rises excessively, it won’t be favorable for the U.S., so there’s a good chance they will take some form of action.
The second factor is rising oil prices.
While gold prices do not directly affect the real economy, crude oil has a direct impact on inflation.
Due to the ‘Big One’, shale companies in the West ceased operations, leading to concerns about supply shortages and prompting a rise in oil prices.
Middle Eastern countries, Russia, and Venezuela, which have suffered from low oil prices for a long time, seemed to welcome this situation. As OPEC showed signs of limiting supply to take advantage of rising oil prices, Ronald threatened to release strategic reserves into the market.
The U.S. has stored over 600 million barrels of crude oil in underground caverns in Texas and Louisiana to prepare for wars and supply fluctuations following oil shocks.
Once Ronald’s statement became known, the previously rising oil prices began to fall sharply, providing relief not just to the U.S., but to all countries reliant on crude oil imports.
The third factor is the surge in raw material prices.
The OTK Company concentrated on purchasing raw materials before the situation escalated, with a particular focus on steel.
Until the incident occurred, there was a global oversupply of steel, leading companies to eagerly sign contracts, thinking they could sell excess inventory.
When prices skyrocketed afterward, steel and cement companies that had signed delivery contracts regretted their decisions, but they couldn’t cancel the contracts after payment had been made. Naturally, we had no intention of canceling our side of the deal either.
This situation also significantly impacted financial companies.
Fortunately, large financial institutions had already engaged in risk management due to various chaotic situations prior, so if the event had occurred without preparation, it might have led to a crisis similar to the Lehman Brothers.
Thinking about it, the decisive factor for the bankruptcy of Bearings Bank, which has a 200-year tradition, was the Great Hanshin Earthquake. (Although the issue was Nick Leeson’s straddle selling.)
Financial authorities around the world are trying to stabilize the market, yet it was still unavoidable to experience credit crunch and a sharp increase in LIBOR rates.
***
It has been fifteen days since the Big One occurred.
The news of survivors being rescued, which had heated the media for days, has now become infrequent. Still, the rescuers did not stop their efforts to save even one more person.
When a woman in her twenties, trapped in a building for fifteen days, was rescued, everyone clapped their hands in joy.
I was driving around nearby shelters with Ronald. Wherever we went, we were warmly welcomed by the victims.
Many Americans held my hand in gratitude, and I offered them words of consolation.
The U.S. was filled with remembrance and mourning for the victims, as well as hope to rise above the suffering and pain.
In the car on the way back, I said to Ronald,
“It seems like it’s time to head back to Korea.”
