Currently, California is engulfed in anxiety, with media continuously calling experts to discuss the possibility of an earthquake.
If Professor Mohan had made his claims alone, it wouldn’t have caught much attention. Anyone can make claims. However, putting money on it is not something just anyone can do.
I was willing to bet, which strengthened Professor Mohan’s argument.
If a major earthquake is imminent, we need to prepare measures. If not, we must stop the spread of rumors.
Thus, Ronald has summoned us to the White House to hear directly from us.
I connected my laptop to the TV and launched a PowerPoint presentation.
Professor Mohan started explaining with a trembling voice.
“Um, everyone knows that San Francisco is at risk of earthquakes.”
I turned the PowerPoint slide as directed by Professor Mohan.
“On April 18, 1906, a magnitude 8.3 earthquake occurred, causing over 3,000 casualties. Then on October 17, 1989, a 6.9 quake resulted in 63 deaths and 3,700 injuries. However, the Big One will be incomparable to the previous two earthquakes.”
Advisor Creel posed a question.
“Don’t other experts disagree? Everyone claims there’s no risk of an earthquake.”
Professor Mohan nodded.
“That’s true when only considering the San Andreas Fault. The fault stretches for 800 miles, and for an M9.0 earthquake to occur…”
His explanation was lengthy, but in essence, the fault length is too short to trigger a major earthquake.
However, he discussed the expansion of the Hayward Fault, raising the possibility of earthquakes occurring simultaneously on both faults.
Strike-slip faults, reverse faults, transform boundaries, convergent boundaries, and strike-slip, all of it followed in complicated explanations, which were hard to comprehend but the conclusion was simple: the Big One is coming.
Vice President Bauer asked,
“To what magnitude are you referring?”
“Before coming here, I kept simulating it. From my estimates, it would be above M9.5.”
For reference, the Great East Japan Earthquake was M9.1. So, a quake stronger than that is expected to hit the San Francisco area.
“If we compare the cycles of the two fault lines, the probability is highest for the end of September. If a big one hits in this situation, casualties will exceed one million.”
Silence lingered in the conference room for a while.
After a moment, Secretary of State Anderson asked incredulously, “Is it even possible to have over a million casualties?”
Professor Mohan responded calmly, “The Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923 had about 140,000 deaths, the 2010 Haiti earthquake had around 300,000, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake about 20,000, and the 2015 Nepal earthquake around 30,000. Are there any places with more high-rise buildings and higher population density than San Francisco?”
The capital of California is Sacramento.
However, even Americans first think of LA, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley when mentioning famous Californian cities.
If a magnitude earthquake strong enough to collapse designed high-rise buildings occurs in that area, a million casualties is not exaggerated.
“So what should we do?”
Professor Mohan categorized the danger zones into three areas.
First, the area around San Francisco and Silicon Valley is Area 1. Oakland, San Leandro, and Fremont across the San Francisco Bay, along the Hayward Fault, is Area 2, and the outer cities and surrounding coastline make up Area 3.
“We need to declare San Francisco and Silicon Valley as disaster zones and evacuate all residents.”
Vice President Bauer asked incredulously, “Are you suggesting we forcibly drag residents away?”
How many would obey if told to abandon their homes and flee?
Though his tone was sarcastic, Professor Mohan explained calmly, “First, we must close all government offices and schools. We need to force businesses and stores to halt operations and move residents to evacuation centers.”
No matter how much you evacuate, it’s impossible to evacuate the entire city. And resident evacuation is limited to A1.
“We need to establish immediate rescue measures for areas A2 and A3 in case of a disaster. Civil, military, and private sectors must cooperate to prepare. We should move available rescue personnel, medical resources, and all assets to California, and deploy federal and state national guard forces.”
Everyone was left speechless at the suggestion of moving the military.
But that’s not the end.
“This alone is insufficient. We must secure civilian rescuers and requisition all necessary supplies and equipment for rescue operations.”
It’s easy to talk. However, executing any of this is far from simple.
Advisor Creel asked, “Do you even know how much economic loss this would cause?”
They probably don’t, since they propose it.
The truth is, Mr. Mohan can strongly advocate for this approach because he is a seismologist, not an economist.
He doesn’t place much importance on the chaos and economic loss due to evacuation. His sole concern is the loss of life from the earthquake.
However, from the perspective of national operators, this is not the case. They must first consider the economic and political losses due to evacuation.
Losses are categorized into those caused by action and those caused by inaction.
“Losses caused by action” arise from taking certain actions, while “losses caused by inaction” arise from not taking any action.
People are much more sensitive to losses caused by action.
This is why they often can’t bear to sell plummeting stocks; they can tolerate the losses from not selling, but the losses incurred from selling a stock that then rebounds are hard to bear.
Nevertheless, if an earthquake is certain, evacuation seems inevitable. Evacuating would likely reduce losses compared to remaining in place during an earthquake.
However, while the losses from evacuation are 100% certain, the likelihood of an earthquake occurring remains uncertain.
This means having to pay for certain losses to avoid uncertain losses.
The San Francisco and Silicon Valley areas are among the most productive in the U.S., alongside Wall Street. Closing and evacuating that region would deal a tremendous blow to the U.S. economy.
Vice President Bauer looked at me and spoke sarcastically.
“North Korea has nuclear warheads and missiles that can strike Seoul at any time, and they’re even threatening to fire them. So why aren’t you advising the South Korean president to evacuate the citizens of Seoul, but instead are doing this here?”
As he said, North Korea has been escalating tensions with daily threats of nuclear attacks and devastation.
South Koreans are mostly hardened to these threats and don’t pay much attention. However, foreigners do not share that sentiment. Some performances by visiting artists have been canceled or postponed, and several countries have advised against traveling to Korea.
Everyone’s gaze turned toward me.
Feeling a rush of nervousness, I calmly replied.
“We can prevent a nuclear missile from being fired by North Korea, but we have no way to stop an earthquake. The only solution is to be prepared in advance.”
Vice President Bauer smirked.
“So that’s why you’ve been hoarding raw materials.”
“I suppose you haven’t heard that we’re also stockpiling disaster and relief supplies. If nothing happens, those will just become trash.”
Though I hadn’t intended to, my tone turned sarcastic. Bauer frowned but couldn’t refute my statement.
It is true that raw material prices have skyrocketed recently.
But that’s only because I’ve been purchasing them. Once I start reselling, the prices will inevitably drop again, and I might struggle to recoup my initial costs. Subtracting the money spent on disaster and relief supplies will definitely result in a loss.
Of course, the media doesn’t mention any of that, simply labeling it as speculation. It’s easier for both writers and readers to think that way.
The hour-long briefing concluded.
Ronald, who had been sitting with his arms crossed in silence since the beginning, nodded and said.
“I heard you well. That will be all.”
We stepped outside.
As the conference room door closed, Professor Mohan let out a suppressed sigh.
“Ha.”
Then, in a trembling voice, he asked me, “Did I make a mistake?”
“You did well.”
Just by informing the federal government about the risk of a major earthquake, it was a significant achievement.
When we returned to the waiting room, Taekgyu yawned and asked, “What did they say?”
“I still don’t know.”
How long did we wait?
A staff member came in and said to me, “Please follow me.”
“Just me?”
I was called back to the conference room alone.
Had the others returned to their positions? Only Ronald and Vice President Bauer remained. Neither looked particularly pleased.
Ronald spoke up, “We’ll raise the alert level for earthquakes and consider evacuation drills.”
I shook my head.
“That’s not enough. You need to establish more certain measures.”
Vice President Bauer shot me a sharp look.
“Are you dismissing the U.S. government? You seem to be misunderstanding your position; perhaps it’s best to keep it that way. You should realize that tolerating your actions until now has required great patience. We’ll take the necessary actions, so you can return to Korea now.”
Vice President Bauer stood up first. As he left, he lightly tapped my shoulder and said, “If you take any further actions that escalate the issues, you’d better be prepared.”
Ronald did not say much about Vice President Bauer’s warning. His thoughts were likely similar.
I said to Ronald, “What will you do if a major earthquake actually occurs?”
He retorted, “What if it doesn’t happen? You’ll just waste some money, and that’s it. But someone has to take responsibility for the political and economic losses.”
That responsibility, of course, falls to him as president.
Ronald looked completely exhausted.
“If you’ve been watching the news, you know how the political landscape is right now.”
He was elected by criticizing the weakness of former presidents and promoting a strong leader image.
However, nothing was actually going well.
North Korea was threatening to launch nuclear missiles at South Korea and the U.S., the U.S.-China trade conflict was escalating, and there seemed to be no resolution in sight for the Syrian crisis.
The ambitious policies he pushed for failed to pass Congress.
The Russia scandal that surfaced early in his term continued to haunt him, and recently a sex scandal broke out.
Women he had affairs with revealed the truth to the press.
As seen in the Lewinsky scandal, Americans tend to be forgiving about personal privacy (the decline in public opinion and risk of impeachment for President Clinton were due to perjury and obstruction of justice, not the affair itself).
However, in a situation where his approval rating was already dropping, the eruption of a sex scandal was certainly a bad omen.
CNN and NBC, known for their strained relationship with Ronald, criticized him harshly. While the affair itself was a problem, they emphasized the attempt to silence the women with money.
“…….”
Why did he even cheat?
Less than a year into his term, his approval rating had already dropped to 25%. Considering this is just the first year and not even the end of his term, it’s the worst report card. While there are still some loyal supporters left, it’s uncertain how long that will last.
As of now, Ronald is even undermining the Republican approval ratings. There are whispers within the party that we can’t guarantee the midterm elections, and there are even movements considering collective resignations.
He is truly suffering from all kinds of political misfortunes.
“Honestly, I don’t understand. What exactly is your reason for this? Is it for profit? Or did you really experience an earthquake and go insane?”
I answered briefly.
“Because it’s the right thing to do.”
“The right thing to do….”
Ronald smiled bitterly.
“Do you remember when you first met me, you offered to exchange a blank check for cash?”
“Yes.”
I turned his promise into reality, and he became president.
“Well, then you understand. A blank check is useless in politics. If you want to persuade me, bring cash.”
“…….”
Are you asking for solid evidence?
The only evidence I have is Professor Mohan’s argument. I can’t speak of premonitions. (Even if I did, he wouldn’t believe it.)
I had somewhat anticipated this, but now that it has come to this, it felt bittersweet.
I sighed inwardly and nodded.
“I understand what you’re saying.”
When we returned to the waiting room, Professor Mohan sprang up and asked.
“What did the president say?”
I relayed Ronald’s words.
Professor Mohan seemed disheartened, and Carrie tried to console him.
“Still, it’s fortunate that he said he’s considering a disaster drill.”
***
Professor Mohan and Carrie returned to California Tech, while we moved on to San Francisco.
Given the negative public opinion about us, as soon as we exited the airport, we jumped into the security cars and went straight to the hotel. We didn’t step outside at all.
Taek-gyu asked, “Are you really going to do it?”
I looked out the window.
The San Francisco area still appeared calm. Cars filled the roads, and people moved about busily.
“Yeah. We need to make Ronald act.”
