As anxiety spread like an epidemic, renowned seismologists stepped forward.
Josh Brown, a leading authority in seismology and a professor at MIT, refuted Professor Mohan’s claims point by point in a media interview.
He argued that instead of objectively analyzing data to draw conclusions, Mohan selectively presented data to fit conclusions.
Professor Brown stated:
“The San Andreas Fault is only 800 miles long and is a strike-slip fault. Moreover, since it is a transform boundary, even in the worst-case scenario, the occurrence of a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake is impossible. The probability of that happening within the next ten years is less than 5 percent.”
The California state government also stepped in to ease the situation. Democratic Governor Franklin Levin issued an official statement.
“The California state government has all manuals for observing earthquakes, early warnings, and responses. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the possibility of a big one is close to zero, and no risks have been detected so far, so please rest assured.”
Thanks to the prompt response, the spread of anxiety began to subside.
Residents were inclined to simply observe the unfolding situation. However, one question still lingered.
If the likelihood of a big one is low, why do aftershocks provoke such behavior?
The media offered answers to that.
[OTK Company invests in raw materials using corporate bond issuance!]
[Even selling now could yield billions in profits!]
[Typical tactics of a vulture fund looking to profit from spreading anxiety.]
[Is it due to PTSD, or a massive scam?]
[Is there a possibility of violating federal law?]
***
Until recently, Professor Kiran Mohan was in despair.
He published a book warning about the dangers of the Big One. He thought this book would resonate widely and spark active discussions on countermeasures, but the outcome was entirely the opposite.
The book didn’t even sell out its first edition, and the publishing house went bankrupt. In academia, his arguments were completely ignored.
That was tolerable, but the real problem was the cessation of government research grants.
He felt anxious and tense, aware that time was running out. The Big One was approaching.
Before that, he needed to find evidence to support his claims and inform the public.
Amidst this, a world-renowned investor and immensely wealthy individual approached him. Kang Jin-hoo volunteered to be a sponsor, telling him not to worry about money in the future, allowing Professor Mohan to resume his research with renewed motivation.
California Institute of Technology houses one of the world’s leading seismology centers.
Here, various earthquakes across the United States are observed, and data is collected, exchanging information in real-time with other centers globally.
After the Great East Japan Earthquake, the sense of crisis regarding earthquakes heightened in the U.S., leading the federal government to fund increased monitoring equipment along the Pacific coast and the establishment of early warning systems. The aim was to quickly identify the epicenter and magnitude of earthquakes, alerting and evacuating residents in advance.
As the system began operating, a flood of data poured in, accessible to anyone with approval.
However, having the same materials does not guarantee identical dishes. Similarly, providing the same data does not yield the same conclusions.
The interpretation and analysis fall to individual scholars, meaning different perspectives can lead to vastly different results.
Data that is too sparse can be problematic, but an overload presents its own analytical challenges. As existing data was supplemented with new data, the academic community reacted with confusion. It would take time to establish a clear system.
Professor Mohan meticulously analyzed earthquakes that occurred in the Pacific Ring of Fire following the Great East Japan Earthquake, including even the subtle tremors that could easily be overlooked.
With each passing day, his anxiety grew. Meanwhile, the public buzzed around Professor Mohan’s assertions.
The previously unsold books sold out, and media interview requests flooded in. Alongside this, waves of emails and letters containing criticism and condemnation poured in.
By nature, Professor Mohan did not care much about others’ perceptions. This allowed him to continue advocating views contrary to mainstream academic opinions.
No matter what others say, one simply does what they need to do.
Professor Mohan recalled his grandmother’s words. Perhaps due to her lineage as a family of shamans, she shared various stories about the land, sea, and sky.
Surprisingly, all of it turned out to be true.
When she said a strong wind would come from the west, a typhoon hit Boston; when she mentioned heavy rain from the south, New Orleans flooded.
To her amazed grandson, she said it was just a coincidence.
But was it really just a coincidence?
Countless earthquakes have occurred throughout the history of indigenous people, and those stories have been passed down orally to future generations.
His grandmother advised him to flee as earthquakes would cause land to crack, buildings to collapse, and waters to surge.
Those words lingered in his mind long after her passing.
No one denies the possibility of an earthquake at the San Andreas Fault. However, the prevailing belief is that it won’t lead to a major quake.
When it comes to faults near San Francisco, almost everyone thinks of the San Andreas Fault (the previous two major earthquakes were caused by it). Yet, in reality, there is another fault.
That is the Hayward Fault.
To the left of San Francisco Bay is the San Andreas Fault; to the right is the Hayward Fault.
Professor Mohan raised the possibility that the extent of the Hayward Fault had expanded two years ago.
He claimed it extended from the northern part of San Francisco Bay through Berkeley and Oakland down to San Jose.
However, since he had been treated as a pariah in academia, even this idea was dismissed.
While reviewing data from newly activated observation equipment, Professor Mohan had a realization.
“Wait a minute.”
He quickly unfolded a map of California and drew two faults with a marker. Two long vertical lines were drawn on either side of San Francisco.
This time, he drew a horizontal line connecting the two faults. That line accurately pierced through San Francisco.
If the range of the Hayward Fault has expanded, the distance between the two faults narrows within 20 kilometers. There’s enough possibility for them to directly influence each other.
Unlike the San Andreas Fault, which continues to produce earthquakes, the Hayward Fault has been relatively quiet. But what if the earthquake cycles align?
“What if both faults trigger strike-slip motion simultaneously…?”
Professor Mohan quickly analyzed the data to overlap the cycles of the two faults. Amazingly, the times when they align is approximately 50 days later.
In other words, late September of this year!
Professor Mohan felt cold sweat trickle down his back.
“Oh my god.”
He had previously felt 90 percent sure about the possibility of a major earthquake. Now, that thought had shifted to 99 percent.
He couldn’t gauge the extent of its power.
‘I need to run the simulation first…’
While he was in shock, Carrie spoke up.
“Please take this call, Professor.”
“I’m busy right now, tell them to call back later.”
“It’s an important call. You have to take it.”
Professor Mohan turned his head.
“Who is it?”
“It’s the representative from Kang Jinhoo.”
No matter how busy he was, a call from someone funding the project was different. Reluctantly, Professor Mohan accepted the receiver Carrie handed him.
[Is this a good time to talk?]
“I don’t have much time, so let’s keep it brief.”
[We’d like you to provide a briefing. There are people who want to hear your explanation.]
“I don’t have time right now. Can’t it wait until later?”
“[I’m saying this because there’s no time. It’s very important.]”
Despite being declined several times, Kang Jin-hoo earnestly requested.
“[I really hope you can do this.]”
Eventually, Professor Mohan reluctantly agreed.
“Hmm, fine.”
“[Thank you. I’ll send you the plane ticket right away.]”
“What? A plane?”
Wasn’t it supposed to be coming here?
But the call had already ended.
***
I met Professor Mohan and Carrie at Washington National Airport with Taekgyu.
It was the second time since we met at California Institute of Technology. Professor Mohan came with his hands full of luggage.
Carrie also had a lot of bags, starting with her laptop case.
“Isn’t it heavy?”
In response to my question, Carrie said nonchalantly, “It’s not a problem. When I go out to the field with the professor, I have even more luggage.”
I guess not everyone can do earthquake research.
“Just get in for now.”
We all climbed into the limousine.
“Have you eaten?”
Professor Mohan nodded.
“I had in-flight meals. The food was excellent,” he said.
“I also had a glass of wine. I’ve always flown economy, but this is my first time in first class. It was amazing,” Carrie added.
“Hmm, thanks to that, you had a comfortable trip.”
I smiled.
“That’s a relief. I was originally going to the hotel before moving, but the schedule got moved up a bit. It’s fine if we go straight to the meeting place, right?”
Professor Mohan nodded and replied, “Got it. But where are we going?”
“The White House.”
At my words, he blinked in surprise.
“The White House? What’s the occasion…?”
“President Ronald is waiting for us.”
The two were taken aback.
“What, what does that mean?”
“I mentioned that someone wants to hear the professor’s explanation.”
“But you never said it was the president, did you?”
“Oh, did I not mention that?”
The truth is I deliberately left it out. Still, since they were asked to come to Washington D.C., I thought they’d have some idea.
Professor Mohan, looking pale, stammered, “N-no way. You expect me to give a briefing in front of the president?”
“You can just do it as you would in a lecture.”
“But, I’m a member of the Democratic Party.”
Taekgyu asked, “Does that matter?”
“….”
Seeing him unable to answer indicates it probably doesn’t matter.
Professor Mohan looked uncertain about whether to jump out of the car. But before he could make a decision, we arrived at the White House.
We underwent various security checks by the guards. Professor Mohan and Carrie opened their luggage and powered on all electronic devices like laptops.
After the security check was completed, we were guided to a room by the staff. A short while later, a formally dressed white woman entered, holding documents.
“This is a non-disclosure agreement. The fact that you’re here and everything discussed today is confidential, and any breach will result in penalties.”
This wasn’t just a simple warning.
The reason for conducting it in secrecy is that just meeting could give the impression that the administration is seriously considering the big one’s potential.
Given that California was already in turmoil, unnecessary confusion could escalate the situation.
We each signed the documents.
The people entering the conference room were determined to be me and Professor Mohan. Carrie opened her laptop and checked the materials once again.
“Just pull up the PPT and slide it over,” I said.
“I’ll handle that. Professor, please focus on the presentation,” she replied as I took the laptop from her.
Following the staff’s guidance, we passed through a narrow hallway toward the conference room. As soon as we entered, it was like a scene straight out of an American drama or news program.
In the middle of the cramped conference room was a rectangular table, surrounded by about a dozen people.
The first person I noticed was Vice President Mike Bauer. His snowy white, short hair and sharp gaze had left a strong impression on me since I saw him at the inauguration.
The rest of the faces were all familiar, having seen them multiple times on the news.
Secretary of State Jonathan Anderson, Secretary of Defense Patrick Marshall, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Pratt, Director of National Intelligence Simon Simpkins, CIA Director Jack Mitchell, Advisor Ian Creel, and so on.
And at the innermost part of the room sat President Ronald, arms crossed.
All the top power holders leading America were gathered in one place. While this wasn’t an official NSC (National Security Council) meeting, it was essentially the NSC.
I could hardly believe I was in this room.
What would my mother say if she knew?
I tried not to show my nervousness as I glanced at Professor Mohan. He was shaking his legs, looking quite distressed.
Ronald, still with arms crossed, said, “Let’s begin the briefing.”
Lets go mohan