California is the richest state in the United States.
However, behind its glamour lies a hidden fear of earthquakes. The San Andreas Fault, located at the boundary of the Pacific and North American plates, posed a potential threat capable of causing major earthquakes at any moment.
The people of California referred to the earthquake that has yet to arrive, and may someday come, as “The Big One.”
Before me was a seismologist claiming that The Big One would come within this year.
He appeared to be in his mid-60s.
He was shorter for a Caucasian, with a stout body and a protruding belly, white hair, and both a goatee and mustache that were also white.
He wore thick horn-rimmed glasses and suspenders. His first impression was that of a kindly old professor.
“Nice to meet you. I am Dr. Kiran Mohan.”
In Western culture, titles such as degrees are considered very important, so it’s customary to attach them to the name.
“Nice to meet you. I’m Kang Jin-hoo.”
You probably know enough about me, so there’s no need for lengthy introductions.
Taek-gyu also bowed his head.
“This is my friend, Oh Taek-gyu. I look forward to working with you.”
The Black woman who guided us here was Professor Mohan’s assistant, named Carrie Catright. She looked to be around my age or slightly older.
She adjusted her glasses and asked me, “Did you come here for research support?”
Professor Mohan pretended to disapprove and said, “Ahem, discussing that already… Let’s take our time with that. Since we have guests, let’s start with coffee.”
“Understood, Professor.”
Carrie quickly went to get coffee, and we took our seats.
I looked around the lab. On one wall hung a large map, dotted with red marks, and dozens of Post-it notes attached. It seemed to indicate locations where earthquakes had occurred.
On the other side, dozens of boxes were stacked up to the ceiling. I could see a book with a cover like the one I was holding between the open boxes.
It looks like it hasn’t sold well at all.
After a moment, Carrie brought coffee. It had been on the hot plate for a long time, no aroma left, just a bitter taste.
After a sip, I couldn’t drink any more. But Professor Mohan looked accustomed to it.
“You must be busy with work, what brings you all the way here?”
“I have some things I want to ask you, Professor.”
I didn’t seek him out because he is the most renowned and trusted scholar in the field of seismology. In fact, it was the opposite.
Professor Mohan was almost an outcast in academia.
Unlike mainstream scholars, he has claimed for a long time that a big one would hit San Francisco, and that it would happen this year.
Yet, half of this year has already passed, and nothing he mentioned has occurred. Recently, there have been frequent underwater earthquakes, but most people believe it’s hard to view these as precursors to a major earthquake.
Still, Professor Mohan refused to back down from his claims.
Some even mocked him with the nickname “Indian.”
When an Indian performs a rain ceremony, it always rains. This is because they keep performing the ceremony until it rains.
In other words, his tendency to repeat a false claim until it becomes true resembles the Indian custom.
Although he is ignored and treated as an eccentric in academia, he is a genuine professor of geology at Caltech.
In other universities, one might obtain a professorship through money and connections even without talent, but that’s impossible at Caltech.
Mediocre skills wouldn’t suffice to teach the students.
I placed the book on the desk.
“I read the book you wrote all night, Professor.”
At my words, Professor Mohan was delighted, unable to contain himself.
“Haha, I see you’ve read the book and become a fan of mine!”
He took a pen out of his pocket. Even without being asked, he signed on the first page of the book, as if to show off.
Now I can’t return it.
“But why did you become interested in this field?”
Well, it was because of the risk…
Since it was a question I expected, I gave the prepared answer.
“After experiencing an earthquake at the airport, I thought it could be dangerous. As you know, many subsidiaries of OTK Company, including the CarOS Institute, are based in Silicon Valley.”
Professor Mohan nodded.
“I see. It’s natural to be concerned since the businesses are there. As you know, Caltech is renowned for its earthquake research. In the field of seismology, MIT doesn’t even compare.”
His pride was evident in his expression and tone.
And rightfully so. California Institute of Technology has a world-famous seismology center. Charles Richter, who created the Richter scale still used in earthquake measurements, was also a professor here.
“You mentioned in your book that a massive earthquake surpassing the Great East Japan Earthquake could hit San Francisco. Do you still think the same way?”
Professor Mohan nodded again.
“Absolutely. The Big One will come, and much sooner than you think.”
That’s exactly the answer I wanted.
Just hearing this response was enough to fulfill my purpose for being here.
“If the Big One hits San Francisco, will it be able to withstand it?”
“San Francisco is an earthquake-prone area and has experienced several major quakes in the past. Therefore, most high-rise buildings are designed to withstand strong quakes. However, even with that, if the ground splits or liquefaction occurs, they will inevitably collapse.”
Professor Mohan stood the book up vertically. He pressed down on the top with his hand and said,
“High-rises are strong against vertical forces. But…”
This time, he lightly tapped the side. The book, slightly tilted, fell over instantly.
“As you can see, they are quite weak against horizontal forces. If the ground splits or collapses, causing the center of gravity to shift even slightly sideways, they will collapse in an instant.”
Taek-gyu blinked and asked, “Isn’t it okay that the Leaning Tower of Pisa is tilted?”
“That’s a very special case. It started leaning during construction, so they kept shifting the center axis as they built the tower. If it had been that tilted from the start, it would have collapsed long ago.”
Professor Mohan continued, “Since the 20th century, there have only been a few earthquakes above 9.0. The most recent was the Great East Japan Earthquake. I think the Big One will be even stronger.”
I recalled the intersection I had seen. “If the Big One hits, which area would suffer the most damage?”
“It would be better to explain it while looking at a map.”
Professor Mohan cleared the desk and unfolded a large map. The map showed California, the West Coast, and fault lines.
“Based on the shape of the San Andreas Fault and recent earthquakes, the southern part of San Francisco is the most likely to be affected. It should be around here.”
He marked a spot next to Palo Alto, in Redwood City, and drew several concentric circles around it.
“The innermost circle will be completely devastated, and the surrounding area won’t be safe either.”
The area encompassed San Francisco and Oakland above, and San Jose below. In short, it included the entire San Francisco Bay.
“What about casualties?”
Professor Mohan thought for a moment and then replied, “The population of San Francisco is close to a million, and including the Bay Area, the resident population is in the millions. Moreover, this region is always bustling with tourists and businesspeople, so there could be at least hundreds of thousands… maybe even a million.”
Taek-gyu shouted in surprise, “Whoa! A million people?”
I, too, was shocked, even though I had a rough idea from what I had read.
During the Great East Japan Earthquake, the human toll included about 20,000 deaths and missing persons. For Japan, it was the worst disaster since World War II.
Fortunately, it occurred in the Tohoku region, or else if a similar earthquake had struck the Tokai region near Tokyo, Japan might have faced an irrecoverable state.
So, what about San Francisco?
California is the largest state in the U.S. in terms of population and economic power. The GDP of this one state ranks fifth in the world, surpassing countries like the UK and France.
Among these, the area of San Francisco and Silicon Valley is home to the world’s wealthiest individuals and top talents.
The U.S. population is about 330 million.
Thinking positively, even if a million people die, that’s only 0.3 percent of the U.S. population. However, the problem is that those million individuals are crucial personnel driving the country forward.
The U.S. can be seen as centered around three main areas.
The capital, Washington D.C., is the political center; Manhattan, New York, with Wall Street, is the financial hub; and California’s Silicon Valley area is the industrial center.
In Silicon Valley, not only American companies but also numerous global corporations have their research labs and headquarters.
Companies include NPL, Facenote, Microsoft, Google, AMZ, Seagate, Hewlett-Packard, AMD, Nvidia, Intel, Micron, Netflix, etc.
Korean companies are no exception. Samsung Electronics, CL Electronics, and SK Hynix also have research centers in this region.
But what if the buildings housing these companies collapse, and the people working there lose their lives?
Professor Mohan looked at us and said, “The economic, social, and political damage that the U.S. will incur is beyond imagination. They might even lose their status as a hegemonic power.”
Throughout human history, empires have always existed.
After World War II, the U.S. became the center of the world, ushering in the era of Pax Americana. It is not an exaggeration to say that the peace and prosperity enjoyed by humanity today is under the order established by the U.S.
If such a country were to suffer a fatal blow and fall…
“I don’t think China or Russia would just sit back and watch that situation.”
I felt a cold sweat trickling down my back.
I had anticipated some of this, but this goes beyond that.
Professor Mohan smiled wryly.
“Of course, this is an extreme assumption. I only hope such a thing does not happen. However, we must consider the consequences of the Chernobyl accident.”
Once, the Soviet Union was a superpower dividing the world with the United States.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was triggered by the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Undoubtedly, the Soviet Union would have fallen even without that accident. Yet, it is undeniable that it served as the decisive blow.
Even if an arm is broken in an accident, with proper treatment and diligent rehabilitation, one can become healthier than before. But if an arm is severed, treatment and rehabilitation lose all meaning.
One must live the rest of their life with only one arm.
So, which scenario does this earthquake represent?
If what I’ve seen is accurate, the Silicon Valley area will be completely devastated. The ground will crack, and buildings will collapse. I can’t see what comes next, but a tsunami is likely to follow.
One fortunate thing is that the prediction is for a ‘San Francisco earthquake’ rather than a ‘California earthquake.’
Thus, the impact of the earthquake is likely to be limited to San Francisco and its surroundings, rather than affecting all of California.
This alone is a horrific situation, but it is not entirely the worst-case scenario. If LA or other major cities were included, the loss of life and property damage would have been unmanageable.
No matter what measures are taken, an earthquake cannot be prevented. Fortunately, we have been given time to prepare.
There are just over two months until Big One arrives.
How we act in that time will determine our fate, the fate of America… and the fate of the world.
The Big One is coming 😨
Big