Prediction and foresight are distinctly different.
Foresight is supernatural and irrational, while prediction is based on scientific and logical reasoning. This is why so-called investment experts fit various arguments together to predict future economic trends and stock movements.
So, who can predict earthquakes and warn people about them?
Naturally, it’s the experts in the field.
California has long suffered from earthquakes due to its location along the Pacific Ring of Fire and the influence of the San Andreas Fault.
Major earthquakes occurred in San Francisco in 1906 and 1989, resulting in thousands of casualties, and a strong quake collapsed buildings in Santa Barbara in 1925. Countless other large and small earthquakes have also been recorded.
Scholarship develops out of necessity.
Thus, geophysics, geology, and seismology have been actively researched in California, producing many renowned scholars and professors.
I searched for experts and relevant materials believed to be reputable and authoritative within the U.S. on the internet.
Often overlooked in daily life, earthquakes still occur continuously around California. Recently, a significant quake offshore shook areas around San Francisco and near LA.
Fortunately, there were no casualties or property damage (one person stumbled at the airport and hurt their head, but they recovered and were discharged a few days later).
Although anxiety over earthquakes has recently heightened, academic consensus indicates that the probability of a major earthquake occurring in California is less than 5 percent, with the likelihood of it happening in the near future virtually close to zero.
Thinking this way seems reasonable.
While searching, an article caught my attention. It was promotional material for a book published by a publisher.
“Let’s go out.”
“Where to?”
“To the bookstore. I want to buy a book.”
We wandered around a few nearby bookstores. Finally, we managed to find two dusty books hidden under a shelf.
The book was a hefty 1,300 pages long.
Taek-gyu closed the book without finishing even five pages.
“I’m getting off here.”
“……”
There’s usually a reason why something doesn’t sell.
Even though it was incredibly boring, I stayed up all night to finish it.
The book was filled with unnecessary content, but the conclusion was that a mega earthquake, surpassing the 1964 Alaska earthquake or the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, would hit California this year.
The author claimed that to prepare for this, the population in Southern California and the West Coast should be relocated.
In any field, there are those who make extreme predictions. Such individuals are often treated as oddballs or ignored.
Yet, occasionally, those predictions can be right.
The important fact is that this author is not just a random person but a professor at Cal Poly, which fits perfectly with my criteria.
I said to Taek-gyu, who had just woken up.
“I need to meet this person.”
“Where are they?”
“They’re a professor at Cal Poly, so they must be at Cal Poly.”
“Where is Cal Poly?”
“It’s Cal Poly, so it’s in California.”
Talking like this felt somewhat like a word game.
I searched for it on my smartphone.
“370 miles isn’t too far from here, at least in American terms.”
“How many kilometers is that?”
“600 kilometers.”
Taek-gyu was surprised.
“That’s really far!”
“So I said it’s not too far by American standards.”
I threw the car keys to Taek-gyu.
“Let’s go. You drive.”
“When are we going to cover 600 kilometers? Can’t we just take a flight?”
Taek-gyu grumbled but still grabbed the steering wheel.
***
“Hey! We’ve arrived.”
At Taek-gyu’s words, I opened my eyes.
Maybe because I had stayed up all night, I had dozed off without realizing it.
“Already?”
“What do you mean ‘already’? We’ve been driving for more than five hours.”
We had arrived at the California Institute of Technology, also known as Caltech.
I got out of the car and stretched.
The campus was smaller than I had imagined. If I had passed by without looking closely, I wouldn’t have thought it was a university.
Regardless, this place, along with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), is considered one of the best engineering schools in the U.S.
Thinking I was at such a world-famous university gave me a nostalgic feeling.
MIT may seem like just an engineering school from its name, but it’s a comprehensive university. Besides engineering, its programs in economics, politics, and the humanities are also at a world-class level.
The most famous professor isn’t even an engineering professor, but Noam Chomsky, known as the father of modern linguistics.
In contrast, Caltech solely focuses on engineering.
Taek-gyu nodded as if he understood and asked, “How does it compare to Korean universities?”
“If we’re just talking about engineering, there’s no comparison.”
While Korean universities gather the best talents in Korea, Caltech attracts the best talents from around the world. In fact, Caltech professors and alumni have won over 30 Nobel Prizes, while Korean universities haven’t won a single one yet (though Professor Kim Homin might soon).
Even during the break, the campus had many students visible. Just then, a group of students passed in front of us.
I approached them and asked, “Hello. Can I ask you a question?”
To my surprise, a young Asian man among them replied in Korean.
“Are you Korean?”
I nodded my head.
“That’s right.”
“Nice to meet you. I’m Kim Seung-ju. I’m an exchange student from Korea.”
“Yes. Nice to meet you. I’m here to meet a professor from the geology department. Where should I go?”
“Oh! The geology department…”
He paused, staring intently at my face.
“By any chance…”
At that moment, a white female student behind us shouted as if she had realized something.
“Jinhoo Kang!”
Suddenly, other students also turned to look at me.
“Oh! Now that you mention it…”
“Is it really Jinhoo Kang?”
“Oh my gosh! Jinhoo Kang is right in front of me?”
In an instant, dozens of students gathered around, excitedly greeting me.
But someone suddenly asked a question.
“Have you found a way to solve the autonomous driving trolley dilemma?”
That question triggered a flood of inquiries from all directions.
“Have the effects of the new material-based anode active substance on the separator been confirmed?”
“I have a question about the FaceIt algorithm…”
“Regarding machine learning…”
“….”
Do the developers know? How would I know? I only invested money.
Anyway, as people gathered, it became easier for me to ask questions.
“I’m here to see Professor Kiran Mohan. Does anyone know him?”
A Black woman holding a wrapped hamburger raised her hand.
“I’m Professor Kiran Mohan’s teaching assistant.”
“That’s great. I’m here to meet the professor.”
“I’ll guide you. Please follow me.”
After shaking hands with the gathered students, I headed with her to meet Professor Mohan.
***
Professor Kiran Mohan from California Institute of Technology.
Currently, he was in a research lab on campus. However, dozens of boxes piled up on one side made it look more like a storage room or a multi-level marketing office to an outsider.
His teaching assistant, Carrie Cotwright, said, “How about we clear these boxes out?”
Professor Mohan shook his head. “Just leave them. We might get contacted by online bookstores about stock shortages.”
“…….”
Carrie wanted to say, “That’s unlikely. We’re more likely to get more returns,” but she stayed silent.
Professor Mohan had dedicated his life to studying earthquakes. He had written a comprehensive book summarizing his research, but sadly, people showed little interest in earthquakes, and the academic community didn’t accept his claims.
The book failed both as a popular and academic publication. Even the first limited print run remained entirely in stock.
While it can’t be solely blamed on that, the publishing house went bankrupt a few months ago, leaving the remaining books destined for the recycling center.
Professor Mohan couldn’t bear to see his life’s work turned into waste. So he moved all the books from the publisher’s warehouse to his lab, resulting in an already cramped space becoming even tighter.
“How’s the research funding application going?”
While academia and research are noble pursuits, it’s challenging to proceed without money.
He had originally received funding from the state government, but cuts in the relevant budget led to the support ending. So this time, he had applied for research funds from the school.
Carrie sighed internally and replied, “No contact yet.”
“We might just have to wait a bit longer.”
The field of seismology doesn’t directly translate its results into funding, so it inevitably gets pushed down the priority list in the budget.
The existing budget has already been allocated to others. At this rate, it will be difficult to resume research in the second half of the year.
As lunchtime approached, Carrie went out to buy a hamburger, while Professor Mohan leaned back in his chair, reading another professor’s paper.
Josh Brown.
He is a highly recognized and famous scholar at MIT.
Professor Mohan skimmed through Brown’s paper while sipping his cold coffee. Brown asserted that there would not be a major earthquake in the next ten years, backing it up with several arguments.
However, he predicted that small earthquakes could happen at any time, and if a major earthquake were to occur, it was more likely to be in Mexico rather than the U.S.
Professor Mohan scoffed as he read.
“This foolish friend doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”
Suddenly, there was a commotion outside. Perhaps a celebrity had arrived; the noise from outside grew louder.
As he tried to get up to see what was happening, Carrie ran into the lab.
“Professor! A guest has come to see you.”
“I’m busy right now; if it’s not an important guest, send them away.”
“They’re an important guest.”
At that, Professor Mohan reluctantly closed the paper he had been reading.
“Is it the Dean?”
“Not exactly…”
“Then tell them to wait until I’m done.”
“Jin-Hoo Kang is here! He really wants to meet you.”
At those words, Professor Mohan was taken aback.
“Did you say Jin-Hoo Kang? The CEO of OTK Company?”
“Yes, that’s right.”
There are probably very few people in the U.S. who don’t know that name.
He was evaluated as the most outstanding investor since Warren Buffett, investing in various startups based in California, earning tremendous money and gaining fame.
In California, opinions about Jin-hoo Kang were sharply divided following the earthquake. Many disliked him because he played a crucial role in Ronald’s election win.
California, characterized by a diverse population, high income, and educational levels, had traditionally shown strong support for the Democratic Party.
In this election, residents of California overwhelmingly voted for Diane. However, the result was Ronald’s victory.
The shock was immense, as it wasn’t so much about supporting Diane, but rather a strong refusal to accept Ronald.
Is it any wonder that protests demanding a reelection broke out?
Professor Mohan looked incredulous.
“Jin-hoo Kang came to see me?”
He hadn’t heard any news of him being in America.
And unless he was a well-known economist, why would an earthquake scientist like him be sought after?
Carrie said, her eyes shining.
“Could it be for research funding? He gave a substantial amount to his alma mater’s professor to set up a research lab.”
This became known because that professor developed a new material to replace cobalt and surprised the world.
‘Could such an opportunity come to me as well?’
Professor Mohan tried to hide his excitement.
“Ah, if he heard of my reputation, that might be possible. He must have come from far away, let’s welcome him inside.”
“Understood.”
A moment later, two young Asian men entered the laboratory, guided by Carrie.
Professor Mohan recognized Jin-hoo Kang at once upon seeing his face.
“You’re the professor who wrote this thick book, right?” Jin-hoo held up the book towards him.
The book is a masterpiece that contains his lifetime of research.
The title was “The Big One is Coming.”
he’s coming 😱