An Investor Who Sees The Future

In the end, I gave up on sleeping and got up. At that moment, Taekgyu opened the door and came out.

“Were you also not sleeping?”

“I woke up.”

Perhaps Taekgyu was also having the same worries.

“Should we have a beer?”

Taekgyu nodded.

“Yeah.”

We headed to a nearby convenience store. As time passed, there wasn’t even a person passing by.

We each grabbed a 500-milliliter can and sat down.

The cold air pierced through our clothes. Already feeling emotionally cold, the weather was disgustingly cold too.

As we drank our beer, Taekgyu asked, “Seosung Electronics won’t go up more, will it?”

“I don’t know.”

Normally, people worry about stock prices falling, but we are worried about it going up.

No one knows whether the stock price will rise or fall tomorrow. If they did, they would have bought or sold earlier.

One thing I know is that L6 will be discontinued.

We adopted a strategy of buying put options and short selling. It was a complete bet on the decline of Seosung Electronics’ stock price.

Options are originally for risk hedging, not for going all in.

Our predictions were wrong, and the stock price moved in an unexpected direction. Tens of billions were already lost.

I looked at Taekgyu and asked, “Aren’t you resentful of me?”

Taekgyu looked up at me.

“Why would I resent you?”

“If I hadn’t suggested investing, this wouldn’t have happened.”

To my words, Taekgyu chuckled.

“What are you talking about? I was the one who suggested investing. If it wasn’t for you, I would have lost everything during Mountain Hill’s bankruptcy.”

“Well, that’s true.”

Just because he helped doesn’t mean the current losses are excusable.

L6 is Seosung Electronics’ premium smartphone and a cash cow in the IM division. It’s not easy to discontinue such a product just because there are some issues.

Were we too naive from the beginning?

We drank our beer in silence for a while, and then Taekgyu broke the silence.

“And it’s not over yet.”

“Huh?”

“Will all the problems really be solved through a recall?”

Seosung Electronics stated that the cause of the fires was battery defects. They claimed that replacing the batteries would solve all the problems.

But what if it’s not the battery issue?

After barely calming the public outrage with a mass recall due to the worsened perception from the explosions, if the recalled products explode again, there would be no choice but to discontinue them.

Could it be that our predictions are still wrong?

The problem is time.

There isn’t much time left until the option expiration date.

After the recall announcement, L6 explosions continued.

Seosung Electronics recommended discontinuing the use of L6 and, as a safety measure, enforced an update to limit the L6 charging rate to 60 percent.

Until the recall is completed, it was announced that through the AS center and telecom agency branches, replacement phones would be provided, and for consumers who wish to receive a refund, they would be refunded without returning the gifts if only the main body is brought in.

Despite the continued explosions, surprisingly, the demand for refunds wasn’t very high.

The premium phone market was firmly divided between ENP and Seosung Electronics. As a result, most consumers chose to wait for the recall instead of opting for a refund. Only 2% of consumers chose a refund.

To meet the recall schedule, Seosung Electronics even worked on holidays, operated factories to produce inventory.

One week after the recall announcement,

Finally, the recall began. The new L6 being sold now was almost the same as the previous product, except that the battery color displayed on the screen had changed to green.

In a press interview, CEO Jo Dong-jun said:

“I sincerely thank the consumers who trusted and waited for Seosung Electronics. We will repay them with the best products and services.”

***

Along with the recall, resales took place.

The waiting demand due to sales suspension shifted to the telecom companies. In one day alone, 30,000 new subscriptions were made domestically.

Both consumers who exchanged for new products and new buyers expressed satisfaction.

As the recall and resale proceeded smoothly, and uncertainties disappeared, Seosung Electronics’ stock price, which had been stagnant, began to rise again.

The stock price, which had lingered around 1.6 million won, increased by 4.1%, exceeding 1.75 million won. Our losses had now snowballed to over 9 billion won.

Taek-gyu, checking the balance, gasped in astonishment and let out a sigh.

“This is a complete disaster.”

Out of the initial 13 billion won, only a mere 3.6 billion remained. To recover the initial investment, a profit of 250% would now be required.

Thankfully, he had engaged in some short-selling. Otherwise, if he had gone all-in on put options, there would likely be hardly any money left.

The put options he had bought for tens of billions had turned into scraps. It was currently impossible to dispose of them.

Taek-gyu mumbled with a blank expression on his face.

“Easy come, easy go, they say. But who knew money earned through Bitcoin would disappear so easily like this.”

“······.”

There was nothing to say.

Even if I were to mention that there’s still 3.6 billion left, it wouldn’t bring any comfort.

I also lost about 600 million.

Just thinking about it made my head feel light, and it felt like my insides were burning. If I feel like this, how would Taekgyu be feeling?

There’s only one week left until the options expiration date. If nothing changes by then, it will truly be the end.

Who would have thought that a wrong prediction could lead to such a disaster······.

If I hadn’t touched the options, I could have avoided this level of loss. I recalled Sunbae Sang-yeop’s words before parting ways, ‘If you mess up with options, you can lose everything in an instant.’

I really did lose everything in an instant.

I stood there with my arms crossed, lost in thoughts.

Was the prediction wrong, or did I miss something?

Taekgyu kept muttering.

“I should have gone all in during the OPEC production cut meeting······.”

If I had done that, I could have easily earned hundreds of billions. Opportunities always seem bigger in hindsight.

Taekgyu scratched his short hair frantically and said,

“Well, it doesn’t matter. I lived well even when I didn’t have that money, so whatever.”

“······.”

But still, if I had that money, I could have lived even better.

I picked up the L6 lying on the table. It was the replacement Taekgyu had brought back from the exchange at the communication company. I touched it several times, but didn’t see anything special.

But in that moment,

Something appeared faintly in front of my eyes, almost like a vision.

I clenched my teeth and focused my mind.

When the expiration date passes, the option turns into scraps of paper. It doesn’t matter to us whether Seosung Electronics, which discontinued L6 after the option expiration date, is plummeting.

When exactly will it discontinue?

Show me something! Please!

Suddenly, a hologram appeared in front of me.

-Discontinuation of L6 in 92 hours-

What is this about…?

“Kang Jin-hoo!”

I snapped my eyes open at the shout. Taekgyu’s face came into view.

Zi-iing!

A ringing sound echoed in my ears as my brain vibrated.

I grabbed my head and staggered.

Taekgyu exclaimed in surprise.

“Hey hey! Are you okay, Jin-hoo?”

“Noisy…”

The shouting beside me seemed to make my head throb even more.

It took a while for the ringing to subside.

Taekgyu glanced at me and asked in a hushed voice.

“What did you see this time?”

“It’s in 4 days.”

“Huh?”

“It will be discontinued in 4 days.”

Taekgyu’s expression turned to surprise.

“Really?”

I nodded my head.

“If this is really a superpower, that’s how it will be.”

***

I was lying on the couch, resting, when Taekgyu, who had been looking at the L6 suddenly shouted.

“Ah!”

“Why? Don’t tell me you saw something too?”

Do superpowers really exist?

Taekgyu shook his head.

“No, it’s not that… There’s news of an explosion.”

I was taken aback.

“Turn on the computer.”

We sat in front of the computer and started searching for news and forums in earnest.

Surprisingly, there were two more explosion incidents.

“One in Canada, and one in China.”

China, as the second country to release the product, opened reservations for sales from the day the recall started. However, on that day, a post with a picture of the exploding L6 appeared on the Chinese portal site Baidu.

Seosung Electronics collected the products for investigation and announced suspicions of intentional ignition using a microwave.

However, the informant who posted the message did not respond to rebuttals, deleted the post, and disappeared.

The next post was from Canada. When Seosung Electronics offered to collect and investigate the product, the informant only mentioned compensation and refused to return the product.

Moreover, they did not disclose the purchase location or product serial numbers, raising suspicions of a fabricated story.

And this time, it was in Korea.

After receiving the replacement product, placing it in a case, and plugging in the charger, it suddenly caught fire. Seosung Electronics stated that they are currently collecting the products for a detailed investigation.

I closely examined the pictures posted by the informant. They didn’t seem much different from the ones posted before.

Two hours after the product recall, Seosung Electronics’ investigation results were reported as breaking news. It was an unusually swift response.

“They say it was ignition due to external shock.”

Seosung Electronics announced that the large scar on the back of the case corresponded with the point where the ignition began. As evidence, they released CT scans and X-ray images to the media.

Dozens of comments quickly followed:

– “Trying to fake it for compensation money?”
– “Could Seosung Electronics have tampered with it?”
– “Isn’t it strange to announce it after just 2 hours of waiting?”
– “Mine is intact, why does it keep exploding?”
– “Yours might explode if you have one too.”

In a subsequent article, it was stated that an accredited external agency would be invited to conduct an investigation, and any media outlet could observe the process if desired.

“I doubt they would go this far if they weren’t really confident.”

So, could it really be ignition due to external shock?

Regardless, it was clear that even after the recall, ignition incidents continued to haunt L6. Therefore, Seosung Electronics was putting all efforts into shaping public opinion.

Watching him, Taekgyu said, “Doesn’t Yogi Berra’s saying come to mind suddenly?”

“······.”

“Which country is Yogi Berra, a yoga player from?”

“Yogi Berra, right?”

Although the name was wrong, I could understand what he was trying to say.

“Is it not over until it’s over?”

Seosung Electronics attributed the cause of ignition to Seosung SB batteries. Therefore, all replacement products now feature Chinese BTL batteries.

But why did it explode again?

Is this also a staged act, or is there another issue?

I raised two fingers.

“Only two days left.”