An Investor Who Sees The Future

Lithium-ion batteries have a tendency to explode when subjected to impact.

Although the L6 had an inherent battery issue, there have been many instances of smartphone explosions besides that.

Smartphones have small batteries, so even if they explode, the scale of damage is small, and there have been no casualties. However, electric vehicles are a different story. Their batteries are significantly larger, and if a car explodes while driving, it results in a major accident.

In fact, Nikola’s electric vehicles have experienced several battery explosions, leading to the death of drivers who could not escape.

This highlights that battery safety is of utmost priority.

The anode material of standard ternary batteries contains nickel, manganese, and cobalt. However, the recently exploded battery was created by mixing nickel, manganese, and a new material for the anode.

Adjusting the proportions of the anode materials and how the cathode and separator are configured could potentially resolve instability issues.

Professor Kim Ho-min and his research team appear confident.

Now that they’ve developed a new material to replace cobalt, what else can’t they achieve?

Currently, the maximum driving range of electric vehicles is around 500 kilometers.

By equipping more batteries, the range can be increased indefinitely. However, this will reduce interior space due to the volume of the batteries, increase costs, and add weight to the vehicle.

Heavier vehicles lower fuel efficiency, consequently reducing the driving range. Additionally, managing the expanded battery pack in a stable and efficient manner is a challenging issue.

However, using this new material battery could extend the range to over 1,000 kilometers, while also halving the charging time, which currently takes more than 30 minutes.

“First, we should file for a patent.”

In the case of small businesses, good products or technologies are often seized by large companies. To claim rights, it’s essential to secure a patent first.

Even with a patent, if you lack power, it can still be taken. Laws generally favor those with power.

My father’s company, despite having a patent, lost its technology to Eunsung Motors. In the process, the company collapsed, and my father passed away.

But this time it’s different.

OTK Company already possesses sufficient money and influence. They won’t be caught off guard like before.

***

OTK Research Institute has applied for patents in Korea and the United States.

All patents developed by the institute belong to the institute, and the profits from patent fees also belong to the institute.

Seventy percent of this institute’s stake is owned by OTK Company, which invested money, while the remaining thirty percent is held by the director, Professor Kim Ho-min.

The reason I established a battery research institute is to create electric vehicles. However, batteries are essential components not only for electric vehicles but also for all wireless electronic devices.

Smartphones, laptops, drones, robots, medical devices, etc.

If we can successfully commercialize this, we will completely dominate the secondary battery market, replacing the existing NCM batteries.

Upon hearing the news, the industry was in shock.

If a substitute material for cobalt could be created so easily, why have we been paying high prices for cobalt until now?

Moreover, batteries utilizing this new material can double the capacity and increase charging speed by four times.

Some tried to downplay it.

Among numerous patents, less than one in ten actually get commercialized. This time will likely be the same.

But the market did not accept this.

– The fact that you’ve created a substitute material for cobalt itself is insane.

– But can we really ensure safety to the extent of replacing NCM batteries?

– Think about it. What has Kang Jin-hoo not succeeded in?

– They said Brexit wouldn’t happen, yet it did. The same goes for Ronald’s election. CarOS completed autonomous driving technology with what AMZ and Eunsung Motors abandoned.

– Could we really see an electric vehicle that travels 1,000 kilometers on a single charge?

– Then what happens to hydrogen cars?

Despite the lack of guarantees for commercialization, once the development of the new material battery was revealed, cobalt prices, which had been soaring, plummeted by over 15% in just one day. The share prices of cobalt processing companies also fell one after another.

While cobalt mining and processing companies are in serious trouble, the battery industry breathed a sigh of relief.

The biggest blow was to the speculators who had hoarded cobalt while betting on its rise. Some hedge funds suffered losses of millions of dollars in a single day.

The industry generally responded with a sense of schadenfreude. The aggressive actions of hedge funds had driven up not just cobalt, but also the prices of raw materials beyond necessity, causing significant losses.

On the other hand, Seosung SB’s stock surged, as it was highlighted that the company holds a 30% stake in TS Company, a joint venture with OTK Company.

***

Contact flooded in from all directions.

Companies like CL Chemicals, SSK Innovation, BID, BTL, and Technics, among others, presented various proposals from Korea and other leading firms worldwide.

Instead of engaging with them, I first called Seosung SB.

As soon as I reached out, Chairman Im Jin-yong rushed over to OTK Research Institute with the Seosung SB researchers. Professor Kim Ho-min and the researchers were surprised to see a chaebol they had only seen on TV appear before them.

Chairman Im introduced himself.

“Nice to meet you. I’m Im Jin-yong.”

“Pleasure to meet you. I’m Kim Ho-min.”

After the introductions, Chairman Im’s astonishment grew as he examined the new battery made from advanced materials. Even more surprising than the cobalt replacement was that it doubled the density and quadrupled the charging speed within the same volume.

Despite the rapid advancements in electronic devices, batteries had developed slowly due to physical limitations. However, a breakthrough technology had emerged to overcome those limits.

I had a private conversation with Chairman Im.

“I’m glad to see you’re healthy. I worried a lot when you were unresponsive for so long.”

“Thanks to that, I had a good rest.”

“By the way, a sudden earthquake… San Francisco isn’t safe either.”

“Well, it is along the Pacific Ring of Fire.”

Chairman Im said, sipping his coffee.

“When I was in Japan, earthquakes were almost routine. At least once or twice a month, I would have to crawl under my desk.”

Imagining that made me smile naturally.

After some casual conversation, Chairman Im spoke.

“Finding a substitute for cobalt has been a long-standing wish in the battery industry. I never imagined it would be resolved so quickly.”

I nodded in agreement.

“I feel the same way.”

I expected it would take several years, but it was much faster.

New technology doesn’t suddenly appear overnight; it builds on existing technological capabilities.

We were just ahead of others, but eventually, other companies will likely develop similar new materials, right?

The important thing is time. How far ahead you can be compared to others determines the fate of a company.

I’m glad we brought in Professor Kim Ho-min earlier. If we hadn’t, this technology would have gone to someone else.

‘New material batteries will change a lot of things.’

‘But first, we need to solve the stability issues.’

‘If there’s anything you need, we’ll do our best to help.’

Seosung SB has global technological prowess in the battery sector. We will likely receive various assistance in solving the issues toward commercialization.

However, there’s no such thing as a free lunch in the world.

‘Are there any conditions?’

Chairman Im Jin-yong smiled.

‘There are no major conditions. I just hope that the new material batteries will be prioritized for production at Seosung SB, excluding TS Company.’

TS Company was established for the production of electric vehicle batteries.

OTK Company holds a 70 percent stake in TS Company, while Seosung SB owns the remaining 30 percent. Additionally, they are a major shareholder with an 11 percent stake in Seosung SB.

From my perspective, there’s no reason not to do that.

I nodded.

‘I will discuss it with the head of the research institute.’

***

The aftershock of the autonomous driving technology unveiled by CarOS in Silicon Valley continued.

GM also announced its technology presentation, and Nikola stated it would elevate its autopilot to Level 4 starting next year. Mercedes and BMW declared they would release autonomous vehicles as soon as German laws were amended.

In contrast, latecomers to the market temporarily halted test drives to assess the situation.

In this context, news broke that a research institute under OTK Company developed a new battery material, sending the market into another shock.

For established automakers, it was like getting a delayed blow.

The most directly impacted was Nikola once again.

Nikola’s CEO, Allen, believed that lowering battery prices was crucial for the popularization of electric vehicles.

His chosen method was to reduce prices through mass production and efficiency in manufacturing processes. Thus, he partnered with Technics to build a massive battery factory called Gigafactory in Nevada.

Once completed, it would produce enough electric vehicle batteries to meet its own demand and more. The excess would be supplied to other automakers.

However, the OTK research institute developed a new material. If successful in commercialization, TS Company and Seosung SB would naturally produce batteries with the new material, putting the Gigafactory producing NCM batteries at a competitive disadvantage.

Nikola’s stock plummeted again, leading to a loss of billions of dollars in market capitalization.

This time, Allen Eberhardt did not remain silent.

He harshly criticized a journalist asking related questions, stating, “A new material more expensive than cobalt is just trash. If I were given money and time, I would find ways to improve the efficiency of existing NCM batteries instead of creating something foolish.”

Although not as severely as Nikola, the situation also became precarious for Eunsung Motors. After failing to seize control of Seosung SB, Eunsung Motors was all in on hydrogen vehicle development.

Eunsung Motors worked hard to attract global automakers by even disclosing patents to establish a hydrogen vehicle alliance.

Success in Korea was essential for this.

Most of PAS’s revenue came from transactions with Eunsung Motors, so Park Si-hyeong was also not idle.

After the savings bank crisis, it was difficult to increase budgets for green cars while urgently preventing power leakage.

Park Si-hyeong found a way, no matter what.

First, he pressured local governments led by politicians from the Korean Federation to build hydrogen charging facilities.

Claiming to promote eco-friendly vehicles, he significantly relaxed related regulations.

He also decided to change the policy to allocate half of the subsidies designated for electric vehicles to hydrogen vehicles. Since Eunsung Motors was the only company capable of launching hydrogen cars in Korea, those subsidies essentially belonged to them.

However, while progressing with plans to launch hydrogen cars in the second half of the year, news suddenly broke about a patent application from OTK Research Institute.

Unlike electric vehicles that use secondary batteries, hydrogen cars utilize fuel cells that generate electricity directly.

As a result, Eunsung Motors believed that if they could not overcome the physical limitations of batteries, market dominance would eventually shift from electric vehicles to hydrogen vehicles.

Other automakers also recognized this fact. Despite knowing that the product’s competitiveness would decline, they couldn’t abandon their hydrogen vehicle development plans.

But if the new material battery developed by Professor Kim Ho-min becomes commercialized, it would address the fundamental issues of electric vehicles, such as driving range and charging time.

This would mean that hydrogen vehicles would lose their advantages over electric vehicles.

Chairman Han Min-goo muttered in despair, “Is it another earthquake aftermath…?”

[TL/n: Schadenfreude means the emotional experience of pleasure in response to another’s misfortune.]

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Nothing much , just a guy doing his best to make everyone happy. If you've liked my translation, leave a comment ❤️

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  1. Birju Raeskhan says:

    Lets go

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