An Investor Who Sees The Future

Hydrogen cars are, in a way, like a dilemma.

While there’s nothing to eat, it feels wasteful to discard it.

Compared to electric vehicles, which are relatively easier to develop, hydrogen cars require enormous research and development costs for fuel storage tanks and fuel cell stacks, making it difficult to establish mass production systems.

This creates a barrier to entry, favoring established automakers with ample funds and production lines.

Eunsung Motors threw out patents and technology partnerships as bait to create economies of scale, drawing in automakers.

Even without Eunsung’s proposal, companies like Toyota, Audi, BMW, and Honda were already researching hydrogen cars independently (among them, Toyota launched the Mirai, while several others unveiled concept cars at motor shows).

There’s also a consideration that, rather than trailing behind in the electric vehicle market led by new entrants like Nikola and BID, they might want to change the game.

The reason established automakers can’t let go of hydrogen cars, even with electric vehicles becoming the norm, is simple: they lack certainty about whether electric vehicles are wholly the next-generation cars or if hydrogen will take over.

All problems with electric cars begin and end with batteries.

In recent years, IT technology has progressed remarkably. However, battery technology hasn’t kept pace.

The advancement has mostly been in packing more capacity into the same volume and lowering costs through mass production and process improvements (which is a significant achievement in itself).

Hydrogen cars also face issues such as charging station installation, the safety of fuel storage tanks, and the cost of fuel cell stacks, but these can be addressed.

It’s been proven that fuel storage tanks do not explode in traffic accidents, and building charging stations is straightforward. The cost of fuel cell stacks can also be reduced significantly once mass production systems are established (they have already decreased compared to the initial stages).

I closed the material I’d been reading, which contained Golden Gate’s internal analysis of the next-generation automotive market outlook.

Taek-gyu asked, “Will the hydrogen car era really open?”

I relayed the content from the materials: “If hydrogen cars become price-competitive while electric vehicles don’t resolve their battery issues, it’s possible.”

Since both electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles are reliant on government subsidies, if government support focuses on hydrogen cars, they could surprisingly see rapid growth in a short period.

‘In our country, the President offers support, but other countries won’t do that, right?’

‘Here’s a question. Which does the government prefer more, electric vehicles or hydrogen vehicles?’

‘Electric vehicles?’

‘Wrong. The answer is hydrogen vehicles.’

‘Why?’

‘Because it’s easier to collect taxes.’

Fuel taxes account for a significant portion of tax revenue.

The reason the government has been indecisive about eco-friendly vehicles, despite being aware of the trend, is largely due to the realistic issue of declining tax revenue.

Electric vehicles are widely used in homes and industries, making it challenging to impose taxes specifically on automotive use.

However, like gasoline and diesel, it is straightforward to impose taxes on hydrogen based on capacity.

When the day comes that internal combustion engine cars are completely replaced by hydrogen vehicles, could we expect hydrogen to be taxed as much as gasoline?

‘If hydrogen cars succeed in Korea with government support, other countries might consider a similar approach.’

Indeed, many countries, including Japan, China, Germany, and France, are keen to foster hydrogen vehicles.

Japan has already established over 100 hydrogen charging stations with government leadership, and other countries are also accelerating infrastructure development.

The reason electric vehicles gained momentum is that battery prices have decreased, and their range and charging times have significantly improved.

If the construction of hydrogen vehicle infrastructure and the decline in fuel cell stack prices surpass the advancements in batteries, it wouldn’t be impossible for the situation to reverse.

‘Ultimately, the issue lies with batteries…’

As I muttered, the surroundings suddenly became hazy, and something floated before my eyes.

-Professor Kim Ho-min awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing next-generation batteries-

‘…….’

Next-Generation Battery? Nobel Prize in Chemistry?

Why is this suddenly coming up?

As I regained my senses, the hologram had vanished. Instead, I saw Taekyu’s face.

“What did you see?”

I murmured absentmindedly.

“The future of electric vehicles.”

“Huh?”

When I explained what I had just seen, Taekyu looked puzzled.

“What does that mean?”

I pondered for a moment.

“Oracle wouldn’t give me pointless information. Maybe this is the key to solving the electric vehicle battery issue?”

Taekyu nodded.

“Oh! That could actually be true. So what do we do now?”

“First, we need to find Professor Kim Homin.”

“That’s a very common name.”

There are probably hundreds of Kim Homin’s across the country.

“He’s a professor. How many professors could possibly have the name Kim Homin?”

“Still, there must be a few.”

“For battery development, he’d likely be in a science and engineering field.”

Kim Homin, professor, battery-related field.

Those three criteria alone are enough to pinpoint him.

Without needing to conduct a separate search, I decided to check a portal site. Three names appeared in the profile section.

A professor of philosophy, a professor of practical music, and finally…

“Professor Kim Homin from the Department of Chemistry at Korea University.”

Is he a professor at our school?

***

After lunch, I went outside to the break room with Taekgyu and Senior Sangyeop.

“Ugh, it’s chilly. When will this weather finally warm up?” I asked Taekgyu.

“How’s the eSports team formation going?”

“We’re looking for a training facility and dormitory, and I’m coordinating with the PR team leader to recruit players. Surprisingly, the salaries aren’t that high.”

You’d think being a professional gamer would come with immense wealth and fame, but in reality, very few players earn over 100 million won. Earning a salary comparable to a corporate employee is already quite good, and most players don’t even make that.

From a corporate standpoint, eSports isn’t as widespread as baseball or football, and it’s challenging to generate significant revenue, making it hard to offer high salaries.

“Recently, there’s a trend of famous pro gamers transferring to China.”

The power of Chinese capital is truly terrifying, offering two to three times the salary without hesitation. This is also due to the growth of the Chinese eSports market, which is on another level compared to ours.

Taekgyu lamented, “It’s sad that national talents are leaking out due to inadequate corporate support.”

“What talent leakage are you talking about…”

It’s natural for professionals to move to places that pay well. If they can promote our country’s name abroad through gaming, that’s a good thing.

Senior Sangyeop inserted coins and grabbed coffee from the vending machine, handing it to us.

“Have you been getting many matchmaking requests lately?”

In response to my question, Sangyeop sighed.

“Why wouldn’t I? I may not get direct contacts since I changed my number, but requests are pouring in through my parents—daughters of lawmakers, professors, small business owners, entertainers, judges, lawyers, and so on.”

I chuckled.

“Why don’t you meet some of them?”

“There are quite a few people asking to be introduced. Want to try going on a blind date?”

“……It’s okay.”

What do you mean by that at this age?

Seon-yeop said as he sipped his coffee.

“Have you heard? The cryptocurrency market is going insane these days. Bantcoin is likely to hit $3,000 soon.”

I was somewhat shocked by that statement.

“Wasn’t it $2,000 just a few days ago?”

“It jumped 30% in just those few days.”

Taek-gyu showed interest.

“Didn’t we sell it when it was around $1,000?”

“It was about $1,100.”

Even then, I thought that price was ridiculous. But to hear it has more than doubled is shocking. If I had just held onto it in my digital wallet instead of selling, it could have been worth $30 billion.

“What about Ethereum?”

“That’s over $300 now.”

This time, I was really surprised.

“Really?”

“Currently, Bantcoin is ranked first by market cap, and Ethereum is second. There are also altcoins like Lufl, Loida, Stelmenta, Boatcoin, and PadeX, among others.”

The new altcoins entering the market are showing incredible momentum, surpassing even Bantcoin.

And Company K is continuously mining not just Bantcoin, but various altcoins at their mining facilities in China and Iceland.

“How much do all the coins add up to in market cap?”

“Probably around $100 billion.”

“…….”

At this rate, it might catch up to Seosung Electronics’ market cap.

Thanks to the rising trend of Bantcoin, cryptocurrency exchanges are also experiencing significant growth. Until last year, Bantcoin struggled to generate profit, but this year, trading volume and amounts have skyrocketed, leading to joyful exclamations.

“Recently, our server crashed, so we had to expand our server capacity and increase staff. We even rented a building in Gangnam to set up a customer service center and offline exchange.”

“It sounds like a stock exchange.”

“It’s quite similar. There’s a digital display showing coin prices and buy/sell orders. The difference is whether you’re buying stocks or coins.”

Sang-yeop, my senior, asked me, “Excluding Bantcoin shares, the value of the coins I hold has already surpassed $2.5 billion. How much farther do you think this will go?”

“Well, what do you think?”

“In my opinion, it might be time to sell soon. The bubble seems likely to burst. Despite blockchain technology, its true value is still unclear to us. It feels somewhat reminiscent of the tulip bubble, doesn’t it?”

Tae-gyu chimed in, pretending to know. “You mean the tulip price spike in the Netherlands?”

They say that a three-year-old pup can recite poetry; it seems he knows a fair bit about economic history now.

I added some context. “Not all tulips increased in price. Specifically, the rare bulb varieties skyrocketed.”

Tulips can mutate during breeding, creating rare colors. Suddenly, as people began to ascribe value to these rare bulbs, prices soared. In the end, the bubble burst, resulting in a massive crash.

“The rise of a new technology like blockchain does resemble the dot-com bubble.”

Bubbles don’t just appear; several conditions must be met.

First, there should be ample liquidity, second, the investment must be scarce, and third, there must be a belief that prices will continue to rise.

Adding a new technology or product that hasn’t existed before enhances the situation.

“True, back then, people invested without even knowing what the internet was.”

The dot-com bubble eventually crossed over to Korea and became the KOSDAQ bubble.

At that time, something outrageous happened: IT companies skyrocketed, and even unrelated companies soared just because their names sounded IT-like.

Later on, simply being listed on KOSDAQ meant their stock prices went up. The well-known Saerom Technology even surpassed the market capitalization of Eunsung Motors at one point.

All of this was due to the illusion surrounding the new technology of the internet. In the end, it all crashed spectacularly, marking a grand finale.

After my explanation, Taek-gyu asked, “What kind of madness is that?”

“When the world is insane, the madmen become the norm, and the sane people appear insane.”

During that time, fund managers and analysts shouting that KOSDAQ was a bubble and that people shouldn’t invest were treated like lunatics.

Every morning, stock prices rose; investing seemed normal while staying out seemed odd.

The current situation with cryptocurrencies is similar. People dive into the market, not knowing what blockchain is or what value it holds, simply because they can make money by investing.

Senior Sang-yeop said, “Seeing how much it’s risen in a few months, isn’t it really a bubble?”

“It only becomes a bubble when it bursts.”

One of the frightening aspects of a bubble is that you can’t tell it’s a bubble until it bursts.

“Maybe it’s time to start selling? Rationally, it seems right to realize profits by now. An unexpected rise one day suggests it could suddenly drop just as quickly.”

Yet, for some reason, I feel like I shouldn’t sell right now.

A normal person would trust rationality, but in my case, trusting my intuition seems wiser, right?

“Let’s hold for now. No more buying, just keep watching while we mine.”

Senior Sang-yeop nodded without asking for a reason.

“Got it.”

Taek-gyu said, “What if, in a few years, Bitcoin hits $20,000?”

At those words, Senior Sang-yeop burst into laughter.

“Haha, that’s a bit much.”

“Well, it used to be less than a dollar anyway.”

In any case, there was no incoming money after Brexit and the U.S. elections; only money was going out. Thankfully, cryptocurrencies have been rising steadily. It’s not real money until we sell and recover it, though.

I crumpled the empty paper cup and tossed it into the trash can while muttering.

“Is there anywhere money might come out from?”

“Why wouldn’t there be?”

“Huh?”

Taek-gyu confidently replied, “The launch of Lost Fantasy M is the day after tomorrow.”